Bucks vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for NBA Cup Championship

Who wants the NBA Cup!?

The Milwaukee Bucks and Oklahoma City Thunder face off in the second ever NBA Cup Final on Tuesday night after they both picked up thrilling semifinal wins on Saturday in Las Vegas.

The Thunder — the current No. 1 seed in the West — are set as five-point favorites in this game, but the Bucks have yet to lose an NBA Cup game all season heading into this matchup.

There is star power on both sides from Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and this young Thunder core.

Not only is the Cup on the line, but a ton of prize money is available to the winner of this matchup — over half a million per player.

Milwaukee knocked off Orlando and Atlanta to make the Final, not nearly as tough of a path as the Thunder, who beat Dallas and Houston.

Still, we should be in for a great matchup since the Bucks have turned things around after a tough start to the 2024-25 season.

If you’re looking to bet on the NBA Cup, here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to consider in the prop market and my prediction for Tuesday’s Final.

Bucks vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Bucks +5 (-110)
Thunder -5 (-110)

Moneyline

Bucks: +170
Thunder: -205

Total

214.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Bucks vs. Thunder How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Dec. 17
Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
Venue: T-Mobile Arena
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Bucks record: 14-11
Thunder record: 20-5

Bucks vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Bucks Injury Report

Giannis Antetokounmpo – probable
Damian Lillard – probable
Khris Middleton – probable
Liam Robbins – questionable

Thunder Injury Report

Ousmane Dieng – out
Alex Ducas – out
Chet Holmgren – out
Nikola Topic – out
Jaylin Williams – out
Adam Flagler – out

Bucks vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Milwaukee Bucks Best NBA Prop Bets

Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 29.5 Points (-120)

An MVP candidate this season, Giannis has been on a scoring rampage, averaging 32.7 points per game while shooting an insane 61.4 percent from the field.

He’s scored at least 30 points in five straight games, putting up 30+ in 16 of his 23 games this season.

While OKC has the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA, it doesn’t have anyone that is a great matchup for Giannis. Sure, Isaiah Hartenstein may be able to help protect the rim, but with Chet Holmgren sidelined, OKC has very little depth in the frontcourt. Lu Dort will likely start on Giannis, but he’s giving up several inches height wise on defense.

I’ll buy Giannis at this number in a must-win game for the NBA Cup title.

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 10.5 Rebounds and Assists (-130)

SGA has been scoring the ball at a high rate as of late, but I think there is value in taking him to do the other things against a Bucks defense that has struggled to defend opposing guards all season long.

Milwaukee is allowing over 28 points, 6.8 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game to opposing point guards this season, and Trae Young and Jalen Suggs torched the Bucks in the first two games in the knockout round.

So, I expect another big game from SGA, who is averaging 5.5 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game on the season. SGA has at least 11 rebounds and assists in 14 games this season, including seven of his last 10.

I also don’t mind taking him to go OVER 32.5 points, but that’s a much loftier number than this prop on Tuesday.

Bucks vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

Milwaukee has really turned things around since the start of the season, but it also had a fortunate path to the NBA Cup Championship, facing a banged up Orlando team (without Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero) and an upstart Atlanta Hawks team that pulled off some upsets to make the semifinals.

Milwaukee isn’t nearly as battle tested – or as deep – as this Thunder squad that ranks first in net rating, first in defensive rating and eighth in offensive rating this season.

The Thunder have a ton of 3-and-D options that should make things tough on Damian Lillard, and just how far can Giannis carry this Bucks team?

Plus, Milwaukee’s guard defense has been downright awful, and now it has to deal with SGA and Jalen Williams. Good luck.

The Bucks are playing much better as of late, winning eight of their last 10 games to pull into the playoff picture in the East. That being said, there are still some glaring holes on the roster – specifically on the wing with Khris Middleton still on a minutes limit.

I’ll back OKC here, as it has gone 15-9 against the spread as a favorite, winning those games by an average margin of 12.0 points per game. The Bucks, on the other hand, are just .500 against the spread as underdogs.

Pick: Thunder -5 (-110)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.