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Byron Nelson CJ Cup Picks, Props and Predictions: Betting Si Woo Kim, Jake Knapp and Stephen Jaeger
Not gonna lie. The Zurich wasn’t our finest performance. Then again, picking winners for the only team event on the PGA Tour is never easy. Give us a break! And I guess pray the LIV team concept doesn’t come to the PGA Tour anytime soon.
Anyway, the SI Golf betting panel hopes to get the hot streak rolling again at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch. The panel is comprised of SI golf betting insiders Iain MacMillan and Matt Vincenzi, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, FanSided senior editor Cody Williams and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each week, we make picks for our outright winner, longshot, first-round leader, favorite prop bet and winning score prediction.
Here a quick update with our overall record and unit count so far this season.
- Kirschner: 6-42 (+117.45 units)
- Vincenzi: 5-39-4 (+90.1 units)
- Williams: 6-42 (+22.65 units)
- Giuffra: 6-42 (-27.49 units)
- MacMillan: 6-42 (-29.26 units)
- Schwarb: 4-44 (-41.19 units)
Kirschner has crushed the first-round lead market, Vincenzi has a big FRL and outright win, Williams has two outrights, Giuffra is leading the prop betting market alongside MacMillan and Schwarb is looking for a big win this week to right his slow start.
While Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite to win this week (+280, FanDuel), no one is backing him. Instead, we chose players with mid-range odds of +2500 or higher.
Let’s get into the picks with explanations on why we’re making them below the graphic.
NOTE: Will Zalatoris was a late scratch so Brian Giuffra changed his outright pick to Michael Thorbjornsen (+8000, Bet365) and Michael Thorbjornsen Top 20 (+250, Bet365).
Outright Pick
Iain MacMillan: Si Woo Kim +3000 (DraftKings)
Si Woo Kim checks every box you want when picking a winner here. He’s coming off a T8 finish at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago while also sporting a strong history at TPC Craig Ranch. He finished T2 here in 2023 and then followed that up with a T13 finish last year. He also comes into this event ranking third in true strokes gained tee-to-green in the field over the past three months.
Matt Vincenzi: Byeong Hun An +2500 (DraftKings)
After struggling with his irons early in the season, Byeong Hun An is starting to fire on all cylinders and appears to be in good form heading into the week. While the results haven’t jumped off the page, the South Korean has gained strokes off the tee, on approach, and around the green in three consecutive starts.
John Schwarb: Si Woo Kim +3000 (FanDuel)
Toss out the missed cut last week in the team event. The T8 the week before that was a big bounceback for Si Woo Kim after two missed cuts in two other Texas events. Finishes of T13 and T2 the last two years make this an event the Korean has circled on the calendar.
Brian Kirschner: Stephen Jaeger +4000 (DraftKings)
I was surprised Monday morning to see Jager at this price. In my opinion, Jags has a way better chance to win than his odds suggest. Winner of the 2024 Houston Open and a T6 at the Mexico Open this year, this is a golfer who dominates at courses with a low missed fairway penalty and high driver usage. He has played this event the past three years because he knows it's a good fit. With his irons rounding into form, look out for the German this week.
Cody Williams: Jake Knapp +6000 (FanDuel)
We know that Jake Knapp is a bomber. He is also coming off a great finish at the Zurich with Frankie Capan. After finishing solo eighth here last year. After gaining on approach in eight of his last 10 measured events, it seems like he’s knocking on the door of a win. With this big ballpark, he can fully take advantage of his distance. I’m riding with him, especially at 60-1 when it feels like this place suits his skill set.
Brian Giuffra: Michael Thorbjornsen (+8000, Bet365)
After Willy Z was a late scratch, I decided to go longshot here on a young power player who's running hot. Coming off a T2 at Puntacana and a T4 at the Zurich, I think Thorbjornsen profiles well at a course where driving accuracy isn't paramount. He's fourth on tour in driving distance but 116th in accuracy. The distance helps more than the accuracy hurts. His putting hasn't been great this season, but it's been good the last two weeks so I'll stick with the hot hand here.
Longshot
Iain MacMillan: Rico Hoey +8000 (FanDuel)
Rico Hoey ranks second in the field this week in strokes-gained: tee to green over the past three months. If you’re going to give me 80-1 odds on the second-best ball striker in the field over the past three months, I’m going to take that bet every single time.
Matt Vincenzi: Alejandro Tosti +9000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti has been playing spectacular golf for the past month. In his last three starts, the Argentine has finished T5 at the Houston Open, T12 at the Valero Texas Open and T2 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. In addition to his incredible form, the fact that Tosti has played so well in the state of Texas makes him a target this week.
John Schwarb: Joel Dahmen +11000 (FanDuel)
OK, I’m rooting for a storyline here in Dahmen bouncing back after that brutal giveaway at the Corales Puntacana. Rather than focus on that final-round 76, I’m looking at the first two rounds of 62-66, the kind of numbers he’ll have to fire around TPC Craig Ranch.
Brian Kirschner: Sami Valimaki +10000 (DraftKings)
I expect this selection to be popular this week for very good reason. Sami’s Iron play and putting have been white hot recently. With 4.2, 8.1, 4.8 and 3.2 strokes gained on approach in his last four starts, there is no reason he can't continue this form here in Dallas. Sami has also gained strokes putting against the field in eight out of his last nine starts. He plays well on the comp courses, Houston and Mexico, so I see the stars aligning for the Finnish golfer this week.
Cody Williams: Alejandro Tosti +9000 (FanDuel)
I was as shocked as anyone to learn that Alejandro Tosti ranks third in this field in SG: Approach over the last 20 rounds — higher than Scottie Scheffler. He’s also first in the field in terms of strokes gained on approaches over 200 yards in that span while also being one of the longest hitters in the field off the tee. He’s also made good on that form. Outside of a MC at the Zurich, he’s coming in off a T5, T12, T2 run in his last three individual starts. That feels tasty at 90-1.
Brian Giuffra: Gary Woodland +10000 (Bet365)
Woodland is having a solid season, highlighted by a T2 in the Lone Star State at the Houston Open. He’s gaining shots on the field off the tee, on approach and with his putting. His weak spot has been scrambling from the rough. The good news is that there isn’t much deep rough here, so it isn’t as important a factor at TPC Craig Ranch. Approach and putting are, and Woodland has been solid there all season.
First-Round Leader
Iain MacMillan: Jake Knapp +6000 (FanDuel)
Jake Knapp comes into this week fresh off a solo third finish in last week’s team event, the Zurich Classic. Now that he’s in good form, he gets to return to an event he finished solo eighth at least seen. Most importantly, he ranks 16th on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average.
Matt Vincenzi: Sami Valimaki +9000 (FanDuel)
Sami Valimaki is one of the hottest golfers in the field. Over his past 24 rounds, he ranks second in the field in strokes-gained approach. The Fin has shown he loves Texas golf this season and has finishes of fourth at the Houston Open and T12 at the Valero Texas Open.
John Schwarb: Sami Valimaki +9000 (FanDuel)
Sami Valimaki is eighth in strokes-gained approach, a key metric for TPC Craig Ranch as we’re looking for players who will get a ton of birdie opportunities. He’s also fourth on Tour in first-round scoring average, so let’s take this price on a rabbit to jump out fast.
Brian Kirschner: Rasmus Højgaard +5000 (DraftKings)
I was impressed with the Dane's performance with his brother last week at the Zurich Classic en route to a runner-up finish. Rasmus has done his fair share of winning and contending on the DP World Tour. I believe it is time for him to start contending more on the PGA Tour. With five DP World Tour wins since 2020 and mostly average finishes this year, I think he has the distance and putting upside to contend for the first-round lead in Dallas.
Cody Williams: Rico Hoey +7000 (FanDuel)
Rico Hoey has been striking the ball masterfully this season. Over his last 20 rounds, he’s third in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green with around 1.4 of those strokes per round coming with the ball-striking. The issue has been a short game that’s crushed him, particularly with the putter. I can’t bank on the putter being hot all week because we’ve frankly just not seen it. However, if he can find it with one round, he has the ball-striking ability to take the lead after Round 1.
Brian Giuffra: Stephan Jaeger +5000 (FanDuel)
Kirschner already explained why he’s betting Jaeger this week, and I do think he’ll contend. The reason I like him in the FRL market is when he competes, he tends to get off to hot starts. In half his starts this year, he opened with a 68 or lower. His game fits this kind of course profile and he should be well-rested after only playing twice in April after four tournaments in March.
Prop Bet
Iain MacMillan: Winner to Birdie 72nd Hole -120 (DraftKings)
TPC Craig Ranch gives golfers an easy finish to the round. The par-5 18th hole has a handicap index of 14 as the fifth-easiest hole on the course. With this event being a birdie-fest that typically comes down to a stroke or two at the end of the round, I’d be surprised if the winner doesn’t birdie the 72nd hole. All four winners of this event since it moved to TPC Craig Ranch have birdied the 72nd hole.
Matt Vincenzi: Ryo Hisatsune Top 10 +425 (Bet365)
Ryo Hisatsune is a player who I’m pretty high on overall and is coming into this week playing some incredibly consistent golf. In his past four starts, Hisatsune has finished in the Top 20 three times, including a T4 at the Valspar Championship and T5 at the Valero Texas Open. Over his past 24 rounds, the 22-year-old ranks 15th in the field in strokes-gained approach.
John Schwarb: Si Woo Kim Top 10 +250 (DraftKings)
Going to double down a bit on Si Woo Kim this week, ensuring I get some money out of the Korean even if he doesn’t win. With his track record at TPC Craig Ranch, he’s going to be in the picture on Sunday afternoon.
Brian Kirschner: Isaiah Salinda Top 20 +225 (DraftKings)
I like what I saw out of my longshot pick last week in Zurich. This kid can play, and he showed it this year on the best comp course in Mexico, where he finished third. Salinda also finished 11th at Houston, which is another great comp as well. He seems to do his best work on long courses with a lot of drivers.
Cody Williams: Matti Schmid Top 20 +320 (BetMGM)
The fact that Mattis Schmid is 13th in this field in strokes-gained approach over the last 20 rounds has been overshadowed by some poor play off the tee and around the greens. However, TPC Craig Ranch should mitigate his biggest issue with the driver (accuracy) and put him in a position to show off his iron play. Coming off a T9 at Putacana, a similarly large ballpark, this is a nice value for only a Top 20 from Schmid.
Brian Giuffra: Michael Thorbjornsen Top 20 (+250, Bet365).
Thorbjornsen was still acclimating to life on tour earlier this season and appears to have settled down recently, with his best finishes coming in the last month and a half. He's fighting for his tour card after earning it through PGA Tour University. This is his last guaranteed year. His pedigree is strong, having won the U.S. Junior Amateur championship against Akshay Bhatia in the final match. Thorbjornsen has the goods to deliver a win at some point, and I think getting him at +220 for a Top 20 while he's playing well in a realitively-open field on a course that suits him should lead to a good performance.
Final Score
- Iain MacMillan: -22
- Matt Vincenzi: -25
- John Schwarb: -24
- Brian Kirschner: -23
- Cody Williams: -24
- Brian Giuffra:-23
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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