Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex de Minaur Prediction, Odds for Australian Open Quarterfinals

Carlos Alcaraz has yet to lose a single set so far in the Australian Open, and he finds himself in the quarter-final. The Australian Open has always been a weak point for him, but now he's one win away from his best finish at the tournament.

Standing in his way is Alex De Minaur, who is trying to become the first male Australian to win the country's open since Mark Edmundson achieved it in 1976.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this intriguing match.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex de Minaur Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Carlos Alcaraz -516
Alex de Minaur +396

Total

OVER 35.5 Games (-120)
UNDER 35.5 Games (-120)

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex de Minaur How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, January 27
Time: 4:30 a.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN Unlmtd

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex de Minaur: History and How They Got Here

These two tennis players have met each other five times. Alcaraz has won all five matches, with his latest win coming at the 2025 ATP Finals.

Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Adam Walton, Yannick Hanfmann, Corentin Moutet, and Tommy Paul, all in straight sets, en route to the quarterfinals.

Alcaraz has an 89% win percentage at three of the four Grand Slams. The one that he doesn't have an 89% win percentage at is the Australian Open. Not only does he have a 73% win rate here, but he has yet to make it to the semifinals, which is baffling for the six-time Grand Slam winner.

Alex de Minaur

Alex de Minaur defeated Mackenzie McDonald, Hamad Medjedovic, Frances Tiafoe, and Alexander Bublik on his way to the quarter-finals. Medjedovic was the only one who managed to win a set from de Minaur so far in this tournament.

He made it to the quarter-finals at the Australian Open last year. He has made the quarter-finals in six different Grand Slams, but has yet to make a semi-final.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex de Minaur Prediction and Pick

I'm going to back de Minaur in this spot, but I'm not bold enough to say he's going to win this match outright. Instead, I'm going to bet on him to cover the game spread of +6.5.

de Minaur has arguably been in the best form of his career lately and should be in a great spot to put up a fight against Alcaraz. When these two met at the ATP Finals, de Minaur forced a tiebreaker in the first set before losing the second set 6-2.

Now, he gets to face Alvaraz in a tournament that the Spaniard has historically struggled at. With the hometown crowd behind the Australian, I'll bet him on the game spread.

Pick: Alex de Minaur +6.5 (-125) via DraftKings

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