Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev Prediction, Odds for Australian Open Semifinals

Two of the top three players in the world face off with a trip to the Australian Open final on the line.

No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz avoided a third straight quarterfinal exit at Melbourne Park, knocking off No. 6 Alex de Minaur in straight sets, needing just 27 games to get it done.

Now, he’ll take on No. 3 Alexander Zverev, who advanced to the semifinals by beating American Learner Tien in four sets on Monday night. Zverev was the runner-up at the Australian Open in 2025, and he has some impressive history against Alcaraz.

These two players have met 12 times, splitting those matches with six wins apiece. So, who wins lucky No. 13 with a trip to a Grand Slam final on the line?

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s path to this spot and my prediction for this semifinal showdown .

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Carlos Alcaraz: -480
Alexander Zverev: +371

Total

37.5 (Over -120/Under -125)

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Jan. 29
Time: 10:30 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Note: This will be updated once the time for this match is confirmed.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev History and Path to Semifinals

There is a ton of history between Alcaraz and Zverev, although they faced off just one time in 2025. Alcaraz won that match (at the Cincinnati Open) in straight sets, but he has not dominated Zverev like he has much of the rest of the field.

These two matched up in the 2024 French Open Final with Alcaraz getting the win, but Zverev bounced him earlier that year in the Australian Open quarterfinals. They are 2-2 against each other in Grand Slam events, as Alcaraz won a 2023 meeting at the U.S. Open while Zverev beat him in the 2022 French Open quarterfinals.

Alcaraz has won three of their last four matches, but this has been a pretty close rivalry, as they split their first six matches and the last six matches they’ve played against each other.

Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz has not dropped a single set at Melbourne Park this year, beating No. 19 Tommy Paul and No. 6 Alex de Minaur in the last two rounds.

He’s making his first-ever semifinal appearance at the Australian Open, as it’s the only Grand Slam event that he hasn’t won. The No. 1 player in the world is heavily favored in this match, but he has just one win in straight sets against Zverev in a Grand Slam event in his career.

Alexander Zverev

This is the third Australian Open in a row where Zverev has at least made the semifinals, and he was the runner-up to Jannik Sinner in the final last year.

The German does have a win over Alcaraz at Melbourne Park, but he hasn’t been as dominant as the No. 1 player in the world in this year’s tournament. Zverev lost a set in all but one of his matches so far, and he went to two tiebreaks against Tien in the quarterfinals.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev Prediction and Pick

Alcaraz has been virtually unbeatable unless he faces Sinner, but I do think there is a path for Zverev to win a set in this match.

The German has had a ton of success in his career at Melbourne Park, and he did beat Alcaraz in four sets in their 2024 match.

Meanwhile, Alcaraz has only one Grand Slam win over Zverev in straight sets, although his dominant wins at the Cincinnati Open in 2025 and Indian Wells in 2024 are a little concerning for the No. 3 player in the world.

Still, Zverev will get an extra set to steal one in this match, and he has knocked off three players ranked inside the top-30 in his run to the semifinals this year.

I think Alcaraz wins this match, but there is very little value in betting on the top player in the world unless you’re taking him to win in straight sets. I don’t mind betting on Zverev to win a set and Alcaraz to win the match – which as a parlay comes out to +106.

Pick: Zverev to Win at Least 1 Set (-175 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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