Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction, Odds for Australian Open Final

Novak Djokovic is seeking one more Grand Slam title before he calls it a career, and this weekend may be the best chance he's going to get. The Serbian upset the two-time defending Australian Open champion, Jannik Sinnir, in a thrilling semifinal match. Now, he'll face Carlos Alcaraz in the final on Sunday.

This final match is also meaningful for the Spaniard as he has a chance to complete the career grand slam at just 22 years old. He already has two wins at each of the other three Grand Slams, but this will be his first finals appearance at the Australian Open.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for Sunday morning's final.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Carlos Alacaraz -330
Novak Djokovic +262

Total Games

OVER 37.5 (-115)
UNDER 37.5 (-125)

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic How to Watch

Date: Sunday, February 1
Time: 3:30 a.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic History and Path to Semifinals

Alcaraz and Djokovic have faced each other nine times in their career. Djokovic holds a 5-4 record against him, but Alcaraz won the most recent matchup in the semifinal of the 2025 U.S. Open.

Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz has historically struggled at the Australian Open compared to the other three Grand Slams. He has a win rate of 89% at the French Open, Wimbledon, and U.S. Open, but has won just 73% of his matches at the Australian Open, and this is the first year he made it past the quarterfinal.

Alcaraz didn't lose a single set until his semifinal match against Alexander Zverev. In that match, he won the first two sets, but then lost sets three and four. He recovered to win the final set to claim victory and advance to the final.

Novak Djokovic

If Djokovic is going to win one more Grand Slam before retiring, it makes sense that it would be the Australian Open. He has a 91% win rate at this tournament, better than the other three Grand Slams. He has also won this tournament a total of 10 times throughout his career, with the most recent happening in 2023.

Djokovic won in the first three rounds in straight sets, but was on the right side of injury luck in the fourth round and quarter-final. In the quarter-final against Lorenzo Musetti, the Italian was up 2-0 in sets before suffering an injury and having to forfeit the match. That forfeit awarded a spot in the semifinal for Djokovic, where he's won two-straight sets to close out the defending champion, Jannik Sinner.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction and Best Bet

There's no doubt that Alcaraz should be favored and is the more skilled tennis player at this point in their careers, but there's something to be said for the history at this tournament for both competitors.

The Australian Open has been a tournament Djokovic has dominated throughout his career, sporting an impressive 91% win rate. Meanwhile, Alcaraz has historically struggled here in his young career, with this being the first time he made it past the quarter-final.

Djokovic proved against Sinner that he still has gas left in the tank. He may not cap off his Cinderella story with a win in the final, but I'm willing to bet this match is going to be close. I'll back the Serbian on the game spread.

Pick: Novak Djokovic +5.5 games (-130) via DraftKings

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