Cavaliers vs. Pacers Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 4

The Cavs are road favorites on Sunday night.

The Cavs are road favorites in Game 4. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Donovan Mitchell and the Cleveland Cavaliers are aiming to even their series with the Indiana Pacers on Sunday night after taking Game 3 in Indiana on Friday.

The Cavs lost back-to-back games at home to open this series, but they were able to get back to full strength in Game 3 with Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and De’Andre Hunter all returning from injuries.

As a result, oddsmakers have set the Cavs as five-point road favorites in Game 4. 

Indiana has been solid at home this season – and one of the best teams in the NBA since the start of 2025 – but it struggled in Game 4 with Tyrese Haliburton shooting just 2-for-8 from the field. Indy finished with 104 points in the loss.

Oddsmakers have dropped the Pacers to +2800 to win the title (tied for the second-worst odds) after they lost Game 3. Can the Pacers flip that around with a home win on Sunday night? 

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my game prediction for this Eastern Conference battle. 

Cavaliers vs. Pacers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Cavs -5 (-110)
• Pacers +5 (-110)

Moneyline 

• Cavs: -205
• Pacers: +170

Total

• 230.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Cavaliers vs. Pacers How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, May 11
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
• How to Watch (TV): TNT
• Series: Pacers lead 2-1

Cavaliers vs. Pacers Injury Reports

Cavs Injury Report

• None to report

Pacers Injury Report

• Isaiah Jackson – out

Cavaliers vs. Pacers Best NBA Prop Bets

Cleveland Cavaliers Best NBA Prop Bet

• Donovan Mitchell OVER 30.5 Points (-115)

Mitchell has been a problem for the Pacers in this series, as he’s scored 33 or more points for Cleveland in every game.

On top of that, Mitchell has back-to-back games with 43 or more points, willing the Cavs to a win in Game 3 on Friday night. 

This number is certainly inflated for Mitchell, but with the Cavs banged up and Garland limited (in part due to foul trouble) to less than 25 minutes in Game 3, I think Mitchell may need to put his cape on once again to even this series. 

The All-Star guard took 29 shots and 14 free throws in Game 3 and has attempted 89 shots in three games in this series. He’s going to see another game of huge usage on Sunday, and he has become one of the better playoff scorers of his generation. 

For his career, Mitchell is averaging 28.5 points per game in the playoffs, including an impressive 31.3 per game this season. 

Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet

• Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-145)

I’m fading Tyrese Haliburton on Sunday, and I shared why in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points: 

Tyrese Haliburton has hit a ton of clutch shots this postseason, but he’s coming off a dreadful showing in Game 3, putting up just four points on 2-of-8 shooting from the field (0-for-1 from 3).

This continues a concerning trend for Haliburton from beyond the arc, as he’s shooting just 30.0 percent from 3 on 50 attempts this postseason, hitting two or fewer shots from beyond the arc in six of his eight games.

The Cavs have also done a good job of taking away the 3 from Haliburton in this series. He’s attempted just nine 3-pointers overall and just three total over his last two games. 

With that usage, he’s awfully tough to trust in this market, especially since the Pacers star has shot the ball well below his season average in the playoffs. 

Cavaliers vs. Pacers Prediction and Pick

Another play from my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – I shared why the OVER is a great bet in Game 4: 

So far this postseason, the Cavs are No. 1 in the NBA in offensive rating (127.4) while the Pacers are No. 3 (116.5). 

These teams have combined for some high-scoring games, even though Garland has played in just one matchup in the series and the Cavs were down three rotation players in Game 2. So far, the Pacers and Cavs have put up 233, 239 and 230 combined points in this series.

While this total is just a tick above where things finished in Game 3, I do think the Pacers are due for some positive regression after scoring just 104 points in that matchup. Not only did Haliburton struggle, but the Pacers shot just 30.0 percent from 3 in the game.

In fact, Cleveland also shot poorly from beyond the arc (29.8 percent), which could mean that offense will be even easier to come by in Game 4.

With Garland back (although foul trouble limited him to less than 25 minutes in Game 3), the Cavs have another engine on offense to create when Mitchell is off the floor. Mitchell has been terrific in his own right, scoring 40 or more points in back-to-back games.

Plus, these teams are No. 3 (Indiana) and No. 6 (Cleveland) when it comes to pace in these playoffs. I expect the Pacers to put up a little more of a fight on offense, helping push this total back into the high 230s in Game 4. 

Pick: OVER 230.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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