Cavaliers vs. Pistons Series Prediction, Odds, Best Bets for NBA Playoffs (Can Cavs Upset?)

Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons won Game 7s on Sunday, setting up a second-round matchup that is expected to be the closest of the four series in the conference semifinals.

Detroit – the No. 1 seed in the East – is a small favorite (-125) in this matchup after it completed the 15th comeback from a 3-1 series deficit in NBA history. The Pistons struggled on offense against the Orlando Magic, but their defense (No. 2 in defensive rating in the regular season) was dominant throughout the series.

Cade Cunningham put together some huge offensive games to help Detroit advance, and Tobias Harris (30 points in Game 7) scored 20 or more points in the final four games of the series.

The Pistons will need more of that from Harris to deal with a potent Cleveland offense led by Donovan Mitchell and James Harden.

The Cavs survived Game 7 at home against Toronto, going 4-0 at home and 0-3 on the road. That could be an issue since the Pistons have home court in this series, but Detroit has a few less options on offense than the Raptors.

Cleveland has yet to make the Eastern Conference Finals in the Mitchell-era, and it’s fallen to third out of four teams in the odds to win the conference this season.

Let’s take a look at the different series markets, the latest odds and my prediction for this matchup with a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals on the line.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Cavaliers vs. Pistons Series Odds

Cavs: +105
Pistons: -125

Even though the Pistons went to seven games against a No. 8 seed, they are small favorites with home court advantage in this series.

Cavaliers vs. Pistons Series Correct Score

Pistons in 7: +380
Cavs in 6: +380
Pistons in 5: +550
Cavs in 7: +650
Pistons in 6: +700
Cavs in 5: +850
Pistons in 4: +1100
Cavs in 4: +1200

This series is a true toss up, as oddsmakers are giving the Pistons in 7 (+380) and the Cavs in 6 (+380) the same odds as the two most-likely outcomes. Both teams went to seven games in the first round against inferior opponents, though Detroit did gain some momentum with three wins in a row to close out Orlando.

Cavaliers vs. Pistons Series Spread

Cavs +1.5 (-220)
Pistons -1.5 (+180)

A sign that this series may go the distance, the Cavs are heavily favored to keep this matchup within one game or win it outright.

Cavaliers vs. Pistons Series Total Games

5.5 (Over -190/Under +155)

Based on these odds (-190), there is an implied probability of 65.52 percent that this series will reach a sixth game. Both of these teams went the distance in the first round, and Detroit’s core has played at least six games in the two playoff series that it’s been in since the start of the 2024-25 season.

Cavaliers vs. Pistons Prediction and Pick

Detroit may have been able to mount a comeback against Orlando, but it won three games with Franz Wagner (calf) out of the lineup and didn’t really find a groove on offense until Game 7 of that series.

The Cavs are a lesser defensive team than the Magic, but Cleveland’s offense (sixth in the NBA in the regular season) is miles better. The Cavs aren’t going to have a second half where they score just 19 points, and they have multiple ways to attack the Pistons offensively with Harden and Mitchell from the perimeter and Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen as pick-and-roll partners.

Allen had a huge showing in Game 7 against Toronto, and it’ll be interesting to see if he and Mobley can outplay Jalen Duren, who disappeared in the first round for Detroit.

Ultimately, the Pistons’ lack of shot creation is a major concern. Cunningham had to play huge minutes – and put up huge scoring totals – to beat an Orlando team that appeared to be dead in the water after the first play-in game against Philly.

The Cavs are a massive step up in class, and they’re loaded with playoff experience – even if it’s not all positive experience.

All season long Detroit has won on defense, but I’m not sold on the Pistons scoring enough to beat this Cavs team, even if they do keep them in check. After all, Toronto was the No. 5 defense in the league this season and Cleveland still scored 111.9 points per game against it.

I’ll take the Cavs to win this series in six games, as they’ve been pretty solid at home (4-0, 3-1 against the spread) this postseason.

Pick: Cavs in 6 (+105, +380 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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