Celtics vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, Jan. 15

Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics will look to bounce back from a loss to the Indiana Pacers (a game that Brown missed with a back injury) on Thursday night when they take on the Miami Heat and Bam Adebayo.

Miami is coming off an impressive win at home against the surging Phoenix Suns, and it’s now two games over .500 entering this matchup with the C’s.

Boston has outperformed expectations to this point, but it has fallen short against Denver, San Antonio and Indiana in recent weeks, the C’s are 4.5 games out of the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, and they’re hoping that a late-season return from Jayson Tatum will vault them into championship contention.

Meanwhile, Miami has recently been in the news as a potential Ja Morant suitor, but it will head into this game with a core of Tyler Herro, Adebayo and Norman Powell as it aims to land a top-six seed in the East.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this Eastern Conference rivalry matchup on Jan. 15.

Celtics vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Celtics -2.5 (-102)
Heat +2.5 (-118)

Moneyline

Celtics: -135
Heat: +114

Total

235.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Celtics vs. Heat How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Dec. 15
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Kaseya Center
How to Watch (TV): FanDuel Sports Network (Local), NBC Sports Boston
Celtics record: 24-15
Heat record: 21-19

Celtics vs. Heat Injury Reports

Celtics Injury Report

Jayson Tatum – out
Josh Minott – out

Heat Injury Report

Myron Gardner – out
Vladislav Goldin – out
Tyler Herro – probable
Jaime Jaquez Jr. – questionable
Davion Mitchell – doubtful
Pelle Larsson – available
Nikola Jovic – probable
Norman Powell – available
Terry Rozier – out
Jahmir Young – out

Celtics vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bets

Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

Bam Adebayo OVER 15.5 Points (-123)

In today’s best NBA prop bets for SI Betting, I shared why Adebayo is undervalued against Boston:

In his career against Boston, Adebayo is averaging 17.0 points per game (across 27 games), and he finished with 16 points on 13 shots in his lone matchup with the C’s this season.

Boston doesn’t have an elite frontcourt defender this season, and while Adebayo had been in a shooting slump, he knocked down four 3-pointers in a win over the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday, finishing that game with 29 points.

Even with his struggles shooting the ball (45.6 percent from the field, 33.3 percent from 3), Adebayo is averaging 16.8 points per game this season. I think he’s a solid bet to at least hit his season average against this Boston team that is just 15th in defensive rating this season.

Celtics vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

Boston won the first meeting between these teams by 13 points, and I think it is in a prime spot to bounce back from a loss to Indiana.

Jaylen Brown is back in the lineup for Boston, and the C’s still rank third in the NBA in net rating (+7.1) in the 2025-26 season.

Meanwhile, the Heat are 13th in the league in net rating and have slipped to 21st in offensive rating. That’s going to be a major issue against a Boston team that is No. 2 in offensive rating this season.

Miami has thrived at playing with pace this season, but the C’s are dead last in the league in pace. So, something will have to give between these two teams, and whoever controls the tempo is likely going to be in a better spot to win.

If Boston does that, it has been the far more efficient offense this season.

Even on the road, I like Brown and company to come up with a win on Thursday.

Pick: Celtics Moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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