Celtics vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Friday, March 14

Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics are looking to bounce back from a loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday night, and they find themselves as road favorites on Friday against the Miami Heat.

Miami has lost five straight games, falling to the No. 9 spot in the Eastern Conference in the process.

Boston has dominated this matchup so far this season, beating the Heat by 18 and 19 points while holding them under 90 points in both of those contests. The Heat have struggled on offense all season long, ranking in the bottom 10 in the league in offensive rating, and they have a far lower ceiling without Jimmy Butler.

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Friday’s contest.

Celtics vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Celtics -8 (-110)
Heat +8 (-110)

Moneyline

Celtics: -325
Heat: +260

Total

216 (Over -110/Under -110)

Celtics vs. Heat How to Watch

Date: Friday, March 14
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Kaseya Center
How to Watch (TV): NBA TV
Celtics record: 47-19
Heat record: 29-36

Celtics vs. Heat Injury Reports

Celtics Injury Report

Jaylen Brown – questionable
JD Davison – out
Al Horford – probable
Miles Morris – out
Drew Peterson – out
Kristaps Porzingis – questionable
Jayson Tatum – questionable
Derrick White – questionable

Heat Injury Report

Alec Burks – out
Josh Christopher – out
Haywood Highsmith – available
Jaime Jaquez Jr. – available
Nikola Jovic – out
Andrew Wiggins – available
Kel’el Ware – available
Dru Smith – out
Terry Rozier – available
Duncan Robinson – available

Celtics vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bets

Boston Celtics Best NBA Prop Bet

Jayson Tatum OVER 28.5 Points (-115)

Jayson Tatum has been on fire scoring the ball as of late, and with Boston listing several players (including Tatum) on the injury report, he could be in line for yet another big game tonight.

Tatum scored 33 points in his last matchup with Miami in February, and he’s scored 33 or more points in four of his last five games. Overall, Tatum is up to 27.2 points per game this season while shooting 45.6 percent from the field and 35.4 percent from 3.

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

Bam Adebayo OVER 18.5 Points (-120)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Bam Adebayo is a solid prop target on Friday night:

Heat big man Bam Adebayo has thrived against the Celtics in recent games, scoring 19 or more points in eight of his last nine matchups dating back to Oct. 22.

This season, Adebayo got off to a slow start scoring the ball, but he’s averaging 22.0 points per game since Feb. 1 (an 18-game stretch). During those 18 games, Bam has 19 or more points 13 times.

Back on Feb. 10, Adebayo had 22 points and 12 rebounds against Boston, and he’s seen his shots per game and field goal percentage skyrocket since earlier in the season. I’m buying him to bounce-back from a six-point game in his last matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Celtics vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

Initially, I thought the UNDER would be the play in this game since Boston has held Miami to less than 90 points in each of the meetings between the teams this season.

However, there is one trend that goes against that, as the Heat have hit the OVER in 19 of 31 games at home in the 2024-25 campaign.

Instead, I’m leaning with Boston to win and cover in this matchup. It’ll be important to monitor the C’s injury report with Brown, Tatum, White and Porzingis all listed as questionable, but Boston is by far the better team in this contest.

Miami has not only dropped five games in a row, but it ranks 18th in net rating and 21st in offensive rating over its last 10 games. That won’t cut it against a Boston team that is one of the five best offensive units in the league this season and loves to bomb away from 3.

The Heat simply have not gotten enough secondary production after Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro to be trusted against elite teams, and they are just 8-23 against teams that are .500 or better in the 2024-25 season.

I’ll lay the points with Boston as long as a few of Tatu, Brown, White and KP suit up.

Pick: Celtics -8 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $150 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.