Charles Schwab Challenge Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Rickie Fowler, Russell Henley and Alex Smalley

Last week, the SI Golf betting panel went 5-1 and was up over 7.5 units as a group on our prop bets. That’s the good news.

The bad news is we’ve now gone three events without an outright or first-round lead.

Every week is a new opportunity! And hey, we have eight outrights/FRL on the season. Not bad!

The SI Golf betting panel features SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and, me, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

The Charles Schwab Challenge is headlined by Ludvig Aberg. None of us is betting him or his +980 odds at DraftKings. We do see a big name winning, and a couple of panelists even like a longtime star to get back in the winner's circle.

It won’t be easy. Colonial Country Club is regularly one of the toughest courses on Tour. It’s tight, with plenty of dog legs, long par 3s, and only two Par 5s. The course measures just over 7200 yards. Think accuracy over power.

Our graphic designer is off this week so you’ll have to read on to get the picks. Let's get into it!

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Rickie Fowler +2500 (FanDuel)

Few golfers have played better than Rickie Fowler over the past few months. He has finishes of T8, T9, and T2 in three signature events before an off week, with his putting leading him to a T60 finish at the PGA Championship. What's more important than his recent form is the fact that he's inside the top 40 in driving accuracy on the PGA Tour, something that's hugely important at Colonial Country Club.

Brian Kirschner: Rickie Fowler +2500 (FanDuel)

If you have been following golf, you know that Rickie has turned his season around as of late. T8 at Heritage, T9 at Cadillac and T2 at Truist. He had a disappointing PGA Championship, but he still hit the ball great, gaining on approach, ARG, and with the driver. Rickie has always shown up to this event and it has to be one that he believes suits his game. In form in 2023, he finished T6. I expect Rickie to get back in the winner's circle this week.

Brad Thomas: Alex Smalley +3500 (DraftKings)

I don’t think there are many viable options when it comes to picking a winner this week. You can poke holes in just about everyone, whether it’s current form, price, or overall win equity. That’s why I like Alex Smalley at +3500. He just contended at the PGA Championship, and the dude has been dialed in for the better part of two months. Smalley ranks fifth in this field in approach over the last 36 rounds, has finished top 21 in six straight events, and has gained on approach in 10 of his last 12 starts. He can putt with the best of them, too. At 35-1, it feels like a great price in a field that has this many question marks.

Byron Lindeque: Russell Henley +2000 (FanDuel)

Henley has had a rough stretch in the three starts since his third-place finish at the Masters, but he heads back to a golf course where he finished 16th in 2023 in his only showing here recently. Over the last 12 months, Henley has averaged +2.03 strokes on the field per round, which gives me confidence to wager roughly 1/3rd of my outright budget on a perfect course fit, ranking 2nd in driving accuracy, 3rd in weighted approach for this course, and 7th in strokes gained around the greens out of bermuda rough.

Cody Williams: Alex Smalley +3500 (DraftKings)

The T2 at Aronimink shouldn’t be considered an outlier for Smalley. And now he comes into this week checking all of the right boxes. Brad highlighted his run of tremendous finishes, but he’s also seventh in SG: Approach, 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and Top 30 in Good Drive Percentage over the last 24 rounds. With his form and growing pedigree, this is a great spot to take a shot on the 29-year-old.

Smalley was T21 at Houston at the end of March and hasn’t finished outside the Top 20 since, including two runner-up finishes and a T7 at Doral as well. He’s been doing that with the type of game that suited Aronimink and should suit Colonial as well, ranking seventh in SG: Approach, 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green, fifth in Bogey Avoidance and Top 30 in Good Drive Percentage as well over the last 24 rounds.

Brian Giuffra: Russell Henley +2000 (FanDuel)

Henley has had two-plus weeks off after his disappointing missed cut at the PGA Championship. It was the same thing earlier in the year when he missed the cut at the Genesis and then was T6 at the API. He’s had a few spike rounds on approach, while his driving accuracy and short game have been steady as anyone on Tour. That should bode well for this course.

Long Shot

Iain MacMillan: Lee Hodges +17500 (Bet365)

If you want a long shot to bet on this week, consider Lee Hodges at 175/1. He's the 16th most accurate driver of the golf ball on the PGA Tour, and he already has a strong T12 result at this event in 2024. He's been streaky this season, but he does have three top-25 finishes and has gained strokes with his approach play in seven straight starts. His lack of distance won't hurt him this week, so if he can find something with his short game, don't be surprised if his name is on the first page of the leaderboard on the weekend.

Brian Kirschner: Andrew Novak +7400 (DraftKings)

Novak is coming off his best major result at the PGA and is coming to a course that he finished T11 at last year. I think that is a perfect recipe for Novak to get his second PGA Tour win. Andrew hit the ball great during his T26 at the PGA, gaining over four strokes on approach. I like Novak on shorter, positional courses, so this should be a great course fit for him.

Brad Thomas: Jackson Suber +14500 (DraftKings)

Jackson Suber is an interesting golfer. He has an insane amount of talent, but he hasn’t done much winning. Most of his talent comes from his irons. He has now put together two really impressive approach performances with his irons. To complement those, he putted really well in those events too. +14500 is indeed a long shot, but I do think there’s a possibility he at the very least contends.

Byron Lindeque: Pierceson Coody +4000 (BetRivers)

I needed my golfer to check seven boxes this week, and Pierceson Coody checks all seven. When scoring averages are over par, he gains the 17th most strokes in this field. Coody gains the 3rd most strokes putting on bentgrass greens, which, along with his 16th-ranked ball striking, can give him ample opportunities for birdie putts. He has finished 16th and 5th in his last two Challenges, and I would not be shocked if he has his best finish yet.

Cody Williams: Tom Kim +7800 (DraftKings)

What if I told you there are signs that Tom Kim is about to resurface in a major way? He’s gained 6.988 and 5.347 strokes on approach in his last two starts, and really just needs an average putter to be on the first page of the leaderboard. For someone who is a high-accuracy player and is now finding his ball-striking chops again, I’ll take a flier that this is the week he finds some magic with the flat stick.

Brian Giuffra: Brian Harman +5800 (DraftKings)

When I think of players who perform well in difficult conditions, Brian Harman is always one of the first names that comes to mind. His driver has been a bit erratic this year, which is a concern heading into this tournament, but he’s also gained strokes on approach in seven straight tournaments, and he remains elite on and around the greens. He’s had a couple of Top 10s at Colonial in his career, but hasn’t finished better than T24 in his four appearances. Still, I think he’s a good bet in a week where par will often be a good score.

First-Round Leader

Iain MacMillan: Davis Thompson +7000 (FanDuel)

Davis Thompson is sixth in the field this week in Round 1 true strokes-gained over the past six months. Now could be a good time to buy low on him after he missed the cut at last week’s CJ Cup. He finished in the top 15 in the three events prior, so let’s bet on him returning to that level of form in the opening round on Thursday.

Brian Kirschner: JT Poston +7500 (FanDuel)

Although it has been an underwhelming season so far for JT, I think he can turn it around this week. Poston has been spiking with his approach numbers this season, but the flatstick has abandoned him too many times. Poston has gained putting his last two starts here, and he is always live to spike for a FRL.

Brad Thomas: Justin Thomas +3300 (DraftKings)

I think JT is going to set the course record in round one. In three straight events, he’s shown that he may be back from the injury. At his best, he’s the best golfer in the field. Maybe slightly mispriced at 33-1 in this market. He’s known to be a fast starter in his wins. I like him to win this week. Let’s see if he can wire the field.

Byron Lindeque: Sam Ryder +10000 (BetRivers)

Sam Ryder loses roughly as many strokes over the weekend as he gains in R1 and R2. Gaining +0.4 strokes in R1 over the last year, Ryder is popping hard in the Micro Model for two reasons. On the ball striking front, Ryder ranks 8th from 100-150 yards on approach out of the fairway, 39th from 150-200, and 15th in strokes gained out of the rough from 150+. No matter what lie he has, so long as it is a scoring club, he is giving himself birdie chances on Bentgrass greens. All of those buckets ultimately make him the 8th best approach player for this course, which is a perfect compliment for being the 6th best putter in the field too.

Cody Williams: Pierceson Coody +5000 (FanDuel)

I’m just vibing with Pierceson Coody if we’re being honest. The stellar ball-striking and tee-to-green play from earlier in the season has been anything but consistent, yet we know what that form can look like for the big-hitter. At the same time, he’s quietly second in SG: Putting on bentgrass. I think that’s a recipe for a pop round this week, so why not take a FRL swing?

Brian Giuffra: Keith Mitchell +5000 (FanDuel)

I’m going back to the well with the first-round king. Mitchell was two off the FRL last week and gained over six shots off the tee for the tournament. He’s going to hit as a FRL at some point this season. Why not now coming off his best finish (5th) of the season.

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Andrew Putnam Top 20 +220 (FanDuel)

Andrew Putnam is a perfect course fit at Colonial, and while I’m not brave enough to bet on him to win this tournament, I think a top 20 bet at +220 odds is a solid wager to make. He posted a T18 finish at the Cadillac Championship earlier this month, and he has posted three separate top 20 finishes at Colonial in his career.

Brian Kirschner: Harry Hall over Pierceson Coody -120 (FanDuel)

I really like Harry's upside this week. This is a course he likes, as he has two T6 finishes here in his last three starts. He is an elite putter, and I really like him to bounce back after a poor PGA Championship. I think that this course might be a bit too tight OTT for Coody.

Brad Thomas: Rickie Fowler Top 30 -130 (DraftKings)

Pretty Rickie is slowly trying to win me over. Outside of a stinky final round at the PGA Championship, he’s been lights out. He’s a great mixture of strong approach play and really good putting. Before his T60 finish at the PGA Championship, he had finished inside the top 10 in three straight.

Byron Lindeque: Rickie Fowler Top 20 +125 incl Ties (FanDuel)

He has three Top 20s in his last four starts and has three top 40s in his last three Schwabs, with two of them cashing top 20 tickets (16th ‘25, 37th ‘24, 6th ‘23). I am very bullish on Fowler, who ranks 3rd overall for me, courtesy of a driver that ranks 17th, irons that are 9th, and enters the week as the 18th best putter. He is doing a lot of key things correctly this week and is in great form, having gained the 3rd most strokes in this field this year.

Cody Williams: Matt McCarty Top 20 incl ties +250 (BetMGM)

Not only is Matt McCarty the third-best putter in the field on bentgrass, but he’s also displaying some solid ball-striking form on top of that. The lefty ranks 23rd in SG: Approach and has gained in that capacity in his last four individual starts. He’s also in the top third of the field in Good Driver Percentage as well. He could legitimately contend, but I’ll take a safer route for a Top 20 this week.

Brian Giuffra: Tony Finau Top 20 incl ties +225 (DraftKings)

Don’t look now, but Tony Finau is starting to play some good golf. No, this isn’t just because of his T6 last week. He’s gained on approach the last three weeks and just gained over four strokes OTT last week, thanks to some more accuracy off the tee, which has been his biggest issue this year. He was T17 here in 2024 and has two other Top 5s here in his career. Despite his inconsistency, he has four Top 20s this year. I couldn’t pass up that price.

Winning Score Prediction

Iain MacMillan: -13
Brian Kirschner: -14
Brad Thomas: -15
Byron Lindeque: -19
Cody Williams: -14
Brian Giuffra: -15

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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