Chet Holmgren Injury: Thunder Championship Odds Could Have Major Value Prior to Star's Return

The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best record in the Western Conference, yet they haven't been at full strength for the entire 2024-25 season.

Big man Chet Holmgren has appeared in just 10 games this season due to a right iliac wing fracture in his hip, and he didn't play any of those 10 games with offseason acqusition Isaiah Hartentstein, who missed the start of the campaign with a fractured hand.

Holmgren was initially given a timetable of 8-10 weeks to be re-evaluated, and the Thunder recently provided an update on the former No. 2 overall pick.

Here's the latest on when Chet may return, and why the Thunder present some value in the betting market until he does.

When Is Chet Holmgren Coming Back for the Thunder?

According to the Thunder, Holmgren will miss at least another three weeks before he is re-evaluated, with the long end of his timeline potentially reaching five weeks.

If the team deems Holmgren good to go when he's re-evaluated, it's likely he'd return to game action shortly after. For now, it seems like Holmgren will be out until the All-Star break in mid-February.

Status alert: Chet Holmgren (hip) to be re-evaluated in around 3-5 weeks.
— Underdog NBA (@Underdog__NBA) January 18, 2025

On Wednesday, Holmgren was spotted getting some light shooting in at Oklahoma City's shootaround ahead of its matchup with the Utah Jazz.

Chet Holmgren at today’s shootaround pic.twitter.com/WsvuxERND8
— Clemente Almanza (@CAlmanza1007) January 22, 2025

While it's clear that Holmgren is moving a little gingerly, it makes sense since he's coming back from a major injury. Despite Chet missing so much time, the Thunder have still been dominant in the 2024-25 season.

They are currently the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference with a 35-7 record.

Holmgren is certainly a key piece of Oklahoma City's attack, and he was averaging 16.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 2.6 blocks per game before going down this season.

It seems like OKC doesn't have any intention of rushing the former top pick back given the relatively vague timeline for when he will return to the court.

Thunder NBA Championship Odds May Have Value With Chet Holmgren Out

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

When it comes to the betting market, OKC may have some value -- even as the favorite in the West. As of Wednesday, Jan. 22, the Thunder are +255 to win the NBA Finals at DraftKings, behind only the Boston Celtics.

In the nine games that Holmgren played and finished, the Thunder were 8-1 with their only loss coming by two points. This season, OKC has an insane +12.8 net rating, more than two points per 100 possessions better than the next-closest team (the Cleveland Cavaliers at +10.1).

On top of that, the Thunder have the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA as well, and that'll likely only improve once they get Holmgren's shot-blocking back in the rotation.

It may not seem like a great bet to take a team at +255 to win the Finals, but OKC's dominance without one of its best players this season can't be taken lightly. If Holmgren returns and puts up his usual production, there is no doubt that OKC is the most-talented team in the West -- and possibly the entire league.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.