CJ Cup Byron Nelson Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Brooks Koepka, Max Greyserman and Michael Thorbjornsen

The biggest longshot winner in recent golf history cashed last week at the PGA Championship. Sadly, no one on the SI Golf betting panel was on Aaron Rai at +17500.

Now we have a betting favorite with some of the shortest odds we’ve ever seen. Scottie Scheffler is just +145 at FanDuel to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. No one on the panel is on those odds.

The SI Golf betting panel features SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and, me, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction. is off another week for his honeymoon.

Scheffler is the obvious headliner, but the Byron Nelson also features Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, and Si Woo Kim. A couple of panelists are on one of them.

The Byron Nelson tends to be a race to 20-under par, though last year Scheffler won at -31. We’ll see how TPC Craig Ranch holds up after an offseason renovation.

Here are our picks for the event with full breakdowns below the graphic.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson expert picks. | Sports Illustrate

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Brooks Koepka +2500 (DraftKings)

It’s time for Brooks Koepka to get his first win back on the PGA Tour. Scottie Scheffler and Si Woo Kim are the only golfers in this week’s field who have gained more true strokes from tee to green than Koepka. If he can simply have an above-average putting performance, he’ll be in the mix on Sunday.

Brian Kirschner: Max Greyserman +6600 (DraftKings)

Although not having the best season of his career, Max has shown the ability to produce high-end finishes in PGA Tour events. Max has five runner-up finishes on Tour, and I think this week could be the perfect opportunity to get his first win. He just boasted his best finish in a major and should be a good fit to go low this week.

Brad Thomas: Mac Messiner +6600 (FanDuel)

I was quite impressed with Meissner at the Myrtle Beach Classic. He was a killer T2G and his putter was sick too. T9 was probably the lowest in the range of outcomes compared to how he was playing. Mac has been on fire with his irons, ranking ninth in the field on approach. He’s not the best birdie maker in the field, but he will have plenty of opportunities. If the putter is hot, watch out.

Byron Lindeque: Michael Thorbjornsen +4000 (DraftKings)

I fancy Thor when you can lay the hammer off the tee and with the long irons. He has had multiple close calls in the last year and now gets a crack at one of the weaker fields he has been playing in lately (minus Scottie Scheffler). I like the par 5 heavy nature of this venue, and I like the affordable price we are getting at 40-1.

Cody Williams: Brooks Koepka +2500 (DraftKings)

Brooks Koepka has been ball-striking his face off lately, but it’s been the putter betraying him. I think putting this week will have a less than impactful consequence for the leaderboard, especially if we’re talking about a little bit dampened conditions. That should mitigate the glaring weakness in Koepka’s game right now and allow him to get that big return win.

Brian Giuffra: Pierceson Coody +3800 (DraftKings)

Coody is an absolute bomber off the tee. Earlier this year, he had a run where his approach game was elite too. That led to a T2 at Farmers and T10 at the Phoenix Open. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship, but was T25 here last year. He still hasn’t won on Tour. This could be his breakthrough moment.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Jhonattan Vegas +16000 (DraftKings)

Jhonattan Vegas played to an unceremonious T44 at last week’s PGA Championship, but the key takeaway for him is that he ranked fourth amongst golfers who made the cut in true strokes gained approach at +1.4 per round, just 0.33 strokes worse than the winner, Aaron Rai. Vegas now returns to a course that he’s done well at in the past, finishing T9 in 2021 and T13 last year. Let’s see if his form and familiarity will lead him to an improbable win this week.

Brian Kirschner: Zach Bauchou +24000 (DraftKings)

I don’t understand this price at all. Zac is coming off three straight top 28 finishes on Tour and has three other finishes in that realm this season. Zach has been hitting his irons really well this season for a rookie and I trust his upside with the flatstick. He’s won on the KFT and I think that he can get in the running for rookie of the year.

Brad Thomas: Hayden Springer +22500 (FanDuel)

Why is Springer a golfer that I’m seriously considering? He hasn’t been great this year, and on the KFT I was expecting more. Well, it’s because he’s a sure-fire birdie maker. He can get hot instantly. I’m not sure he has the chops to win, but from a modeling standpoint, he ranks 11th with the consensus odds ranking him 74th. If he contends on Sunday, he might not be able to see it through, but there’s a runway for him to make enough birdies to withstand the trailing pack.

Byron Lindeque:Jhonattan Vegas +16000 (DraftKings)

In addition to everything Iain mentioned regarding his ball striking at the PGA Championship ranking 4th and his course history consisting of a 9th and 13th, Vegas has been worth the dice roll if you played him in a safer capacity in much better fields on similar courses like the Houston Open (T16) and the Arnold Palmer Invitational (T18). At this price, he offers extreme value as a golfer who won the 2024 3M championship.

Cody Williams: Blades Brown +8000 (DraftKings)

Blades Brown might be a youngster, but he’s been competing almost every time out. In stroke-play events since a missed cut at the Cognizant, Brown has three top-three finishes and only one start where he was outside the Top 40 in eight outings. Oh, and let’s not forget his T9 at Myrtle Beach either. In this field, Brown is ninth in SG: Approach, plenty long off the tee, Top 40 in putting on bentgrass, and second in Birdie or Better Gained rate over the last 24 rounds. That’s enough of a profile for this price specifically for me to take a peek.

Brian Giuffra: Stephan Jaeger +6000 (FanDuel)

Jager won in Texas before at the Houston Open in 2024. He’s coming off a T18 at the PGA Championship. He was also T7 at Valspar and T5 at Farmers this year. He’s a bomber who can get hot with the putter. That’s an interesting combination this week.

First-Round Lead

Iain MacMillan: Eric Cole +6800 (DraftKings)

Eric Cole isn’t a name you’ve heard a lot of this year, but he’s one you may want to keep an eye on this week. He has finished T14, T6, and T6 in his last three starts, and now he returns to an event he finished T5 last year. Additionally, He’s fifth in the field in true total strokes gained in opening rounds in this week’s field. Only Scheffler, Kim, Jordan Spieth, and Koepka, have been better in first rounds of events over the past three months.

Brian Kirschner: Austin Eckroat +5000 (FanDuel)

This one is pretty simple. Eckroat is finding his form again and has a runner-up finish at this very course. He has gone T10, T6 and T19 in his last three starts on Tour, and I like the fact that he got some rest last week not playing in the PGA Championship. Look out for him to start hot this week.

Brad Thomas: Sam Ryder +10000 (FanDuel)

Ryder has been a great first-round golfer over the last two seasons, with multiple first-round leads and top-five finishes. Ryder is a momentum golfer, and right now his irons are hot. Solid spot for him this week.

Byron Lindeque: Pierceson Coody +5000 (FanDuel)

Pierceson Coody ranks third in my Round 1 model and checks all six boxes I am looking for this week, ranking top 20 in Easy Scoring conditions (#6), strokes gained off the tee (#6), course fit (#3), finishes inside the top 20/10/5 over the last 12 months (#7), strokes gained over the last four months (#7) and Maniac Model ranking (#3). This ends well.

Cody Williams: Mark Hubbard +10000 (DraftKings)

If we disregard the Zurich (which I will always choose to do), there’s a lot to like from Mark Hubbard. He was runner-up at Myrtle Beach while gaining 6.9 strokes on approach and finding something with the putter. He was T65 at TPC San Antonio, but that was a disastrous week on the greens. On the whole, he’s 10th in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and Top 25 in proximity from 200+ yards while ranking eighth in Birdie or Better Gained rate. I don’t think he can hold on to win, but coming out hot and taking a FRL crown is possible.

Brian Giuffra: Jhonattan Vegas +9000 (DraftKings)

Vegas was T13 here last year and has a T9 in 2021. He gained nearly six strokes on the field in approach at the PGA Championship last year. That will be key this week. He’s still a long hitter and his accuracy has been better off the tee as well. It’s a big swing on a longshot, but in a week like this, it’s worth the risk.

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Erik Van Rooyen Top South African +335 (DraftKings)

Erik Van Rooyen has had a rough 2026 season, but we saw some life from him at the Myrtle Beach Classic, finally gaining some strokes with his irons. I’m hoping he turns momentum into a solid outing at an event he should feel plenty of confidence. Van Rooyen was the solo runner-up to Scottie Scheffler at the CJ Cup last year. If he can re-create even a little bit of that magic, there’s no reason why he can’t beat the likes of Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Garrik Higgo (who just separated from his caddie), and Christo Lamprecht.

Brian Kirschner: Sungjae Im over Taylor Pendrith -115 (DraftKings)

Really trust Sungjae’s driver and putter this week. I like this T5 finish at Truist just two weeks ago and can overlook his MC at the PGA. Pendrith has really struggled this season, posting nothing better than a T34 since the first week of the season.

Brad Thomas: Sam Ryder Top 40 +164 (DraftKings)

I think there's value on Ryder at any birdiefest to have a high finish. If those approach numbers keep up, he can contend, or at least be close to it.

Byron Lindeque: Brooks Koepka Top 20 +100 ties paid (DraftKings)

Koepka top 20s in 50% of his starts and has done so in three of his last five. The top 20 market is an ideal landing spot for Brooks and a great way to take advantage of his relatively high floor, while not needing his putter (derogatory) to provide the additional firepower needed to get further up the leaderboard. If it does, this bet cashes sweat-free as he enters the week with the 11th-best ball-striking projections.

Cody Williams: Brooks Koepka Top 10 incl. ties +225 (BetMGM)

All-in with Koepka this week. His ball-striking is too good in a field like this for him not to be in contention this week, in addition to this simply being a strong fit for a player who’s second in approach and first in Birdies or Better Gained rate over the last 24 rounds.

Brian Giuffra: Blades Brown Top 20 incl. ties +220 (DraftKings)

I wrote about this in my betting preview for the event, so I won’t rehash why I like this completely. What I will say is the 18-year-old has proven he can compete at this level, securing Top 10s in the Puerto Rico Open and Myrtle Beach Classic. Yes, they’re alternate field events, but this kind of feels like one as well. Time for the youngster to prove himself.

Winning Score Prediction

Iain MacMillan: -23
Brian Kirschner: -21
Brad Thomas: -25
Byron Lindeque: -27
Cody Williams: -26
Brian Giuffra: -27

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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