Cognizant Classic Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Michael Thorbjornsen, Ryan Gerard and Nicolai Hojgaard

The SI Golf betting panel had our third big hit of the young year, with Byron Lindeque cashing Aldrich Potgieter Top 5 +5500 at Genesis last week. That came on the heels of consecutive second-place finishes, so it was nice to see that one get over the finish line like our previous hits on S.H. Kim FRL and Justin Rose outright.

The elite talent level decreases considerably at the Cognizant Classic this week after back-to-back signature events. That just means the opportunity for a lesser-known player to emerge victorious. The winners of the last two years had +11000 odds or higher!

The SI Golf Betting panel includes SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and me, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

PGA National is one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour with a ton of water. Think: target golf.

Scoring has become easier recently, with the winning score being -14, -17 and -19 the last three years. That after 10 years where the scoring was never lower than -12 and was in single digits seven times.

When handicapping, all this was critical.

Let's get into the picks with a full breakdown of each pick below the graphic.

Cognizant Classic betting picks. | Sports Illustrated

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Johnny Keefer +6000 (BetMGM)

Johnny Keefer enters this week ranking 12th in the field in strokes-gained from tee to green over the past three months. His irons were dialed in at both The American Express and the WM Phoenix Open. His short game has let him down so far this season, but if he can keep his ball striking at an elite level while getting a few more putts to drop, he can take advantage of this weak field.

Brian Kirschner: Haotong Li +4700 (DraftKings)

This former President Cup player has had a great start to the PGA Tour season with a T8 and T11 at the AmEx and Farmers with excellent approach numbers. He came back down to earth at WMPO, but everyone is allowed a bad week. Glad he was able to take some time off and work on his game and get ready for the Cognizant. Li has played in the final group of a major and won plenty on the DP World Tour.

Brad Thomas: Michael Thorbjornsen +2500 (Bet365)

Michael Thorbjornsen didn’t have it at Pebble Beach. I’m not too worried about that. A week to reset and a trip to PGA National should be perfect for him. Thorbjornsen has thrived at courses where driver isn’t necessary, but the reward for hitting it long and straight is high. His price should be closer to +2000 than it is to +3000. Simple as that.

Byron Lindeque Ryan Gerrard +1900 (DraftKings)

The reason for betting Ryan Gerard was bridged by Jacob last week, cashing in on some really good form with a win at the Genesis last week. Gerard finished T28 around Riviera a couple days ago and it was actually his first event losing strokes putting in 2026. I believe with scores needing to get close to 20 under par, you are going to need the putter to capitalize on the ample birdie looks golfers will have after most approach shots coming from 150-200 proximities. Gerard ranks in the 98th percentile of all PGA Tour golfers from 150+. Gerard will be looking to improve on his two 2nd-place finishes at the Sony and AmEx this year, as well as his T28 and 4th here in 2023.

Cody Williams: Ryan Gerard +1900 (DraftKings)

Do I love betting a favorite? No. Do I think Ryan Gerard is still a good bet this week? Yes. He checks boxes across the board this week, ranking fourth in SG: Approach, fifth in SG: Total, fifth in Bogey Avoidance and seventh in proximity from 150-175 yards over the last 24 rounds, while also being a decent putter on Bermuda. After his strong start to the 2026 season, it feels like this is a perfect spot to resurface and get a victory.

Brian Giuffra: Nicolai Hojgaard +2200 (Bet365)

The line graph on Hojgaard’s accuracy off the tee is trending in the right direction, which bodes well this week. He remains elite on approach, scrambling and putting. While he’s yet to win on the PGA Tour, he has three wins on the DP World Tour. I’m not concerned about nerves to finish. His last four starts resulted in a T4, T22 and T3 finish. He was T18 here last year. A lot is going for him here.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Andrew Putnam +15000 (Caesars)

Andrew Putnam already has a T2 finish this season, finishing tied in the runner-up position at The American Express. Now, he returns to an event he finished T11 at last season. If PGA National is all about accuracy, why not take a shot at one of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball in the field?

Brian Kirschner: Nico Echavarria +6000 (DraftKings)

Nico is the ultimate boom or bust candidate, which makes for a great outright bet, especially at 60/1 in this field. In his last six starts on tour, he has either finished top 10 or missed the cut. He has two wins on tour and has contended a ton in between. He is known for his iron play and that will be very important this week. Let's hope for a boom week from Nico in Palm Beach

Brad Thomas: Austin Smotherman +17500 (Bet365)

With the withdrawals of Ben Griffin, Adam Scott and Jacob Bridgeman, this field has taken a noticeable hit from a strength standpoint. In events like this, I tend to lean into the high-end Korn Ferry Tour superstars who are a bit more comfortable in their PGA Tour rookie seasons. Last season on the Korn Ferry Tour, Smotherman won twice. He also has a strong chance of leading the field in approach this year. Not bad from a guy at 175-1. I just need him to actually bring his putter with him.

Byron Lindeque: Kris Ventura +8000 (BetRivers)

Kris Ventura, putt detective, has closed his last four cases on the greens with over a stroke per round gained on the field. Green in regulation rates could be higher than the Florida temperatures, which means the best putter in the field will have ample opportunities to flex the best part of his game. He is a steady driver of the ball, gaining distance and accuracy on the field most weeks. If we can get the iron play back on the leash, the putter should take care of the rest.

Cody Williams: Sam Ryder +12000 (DraftKings)

Admittedly, Sam Ryder hasn’t done much this season with two starts that led to finishes outside the Top 25. Yet, the approach play has been good, ranking 10th in strokes-gained over the last 24 rounds, while also being fifth in proximity from 150-175 yards out. He’s also 25th in SG: Putting on Bermuda and third in SG: Putting overall. At 120/1, I’ll take a swing on Ryder, especially with back-to-back Top 10s at PGA National in 2021 and 2022 on his ledger.

Brian Giuffra: David Ford +11500 (DraftKings)

Ford was a star in college, winning the 2025 Fred Haskins Award at UNC. This is his first year on Tour and he’s found his footing, earning a T13 at the AmEx, where he gained over 8 strokes on approach. He missed the cut at the Farmers, but still gained over 5 strokes on approach. More of an accurate driver than bomber, this course should suit him as long as his putter and short game hold strong. Why not back another young gun with a ton of college wins breaking out on Tour.

First-Round Leader

Iain MacMillan: Michael Thorbjornsen +4200 (DraftKings)

Michael Thorbjornsen is starting to look like the golfer we all expected to see last season, so he may be able to take advantage of a weak field this week. He has brought his best stuff in the opening rounds so far this season, ranking eighth on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average. Let’s see if he can get off to another hot start at PGA National.

Brian Kirschner: Sami Valimaki +6900 (DraftKings)

Winner of the RSM Classic in the fall, I like Sami Valimaki to post his best result of the 2026 season this week. Sami finished T36 last week at Genesis but gained well over 4 strokes on approach. Iron play is the key this week and I think he can get off to a hot start at PGA National.

Brad Thomas: Luke Clanton +10000 (DraftKings)

I’m taking the hometown kid to start strong.

Byron Lindeque: S.H. Kim +9000 (BetRivers)

While a hot putter is tough to sustain for four straight days, all we need from the 14th-best putter in the field is one good day. Given the fact that Kim leads the field in R1 raw strokes gained since 2025, hopefully the two data points can tango and dance their way into the top spot of the Thursday leaderboard.

Cody Williams: Justin Lower +12500 (DraftKings)

Point blank, I don’t think Justin Lower is striking the ball well enough to win this week. At the same time, I do think there’s a better chance at a hot start than 125/1 would indicate. Not only can he make up for poor approaches, as he’s 12th in the field in SG: Around-the-Green in the last 24 rounds, but he’s third in proximity from 150-175 yards out and has been a slightly positive putter on Bermuda. Why not roll the dice on someone with some intriguing numbers behind him?

Brian Giuffra: Keith Mitchell +4500 (Bet365)

Mitchell’s game has been sporadic this year. He had a T11 at Farmers, but hasn’t finished better than T41 in any other event. Still, he has a long history of first-round leads on the PGA Tour and just as much success on this course, with a win and two Top 10s. His approach game has had a few spikes this year, but we haven’t seen the putter heat up yet. Perhaps Round 1 is that spike.

Best Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Winner to Birdie 72nd Hole: Yes (-105)

The 18th hole at PGA National is a 552-yard Par 5 that played as the fourth-easiest hole in last year’s final round. 21 birdies were recorded on that hole on Sunday, so let’s take a shot on the winner making a statement on the 72nd hole.

Brian Kirschner: Alex Smalley Top 20 +152 (DraftKings)

Smalley should be a great course fit at PGA National and he is coming off a nice finish at Pebble Beach. He doesn’t have to contend with the best golfers in the world this week and he has the potential for a high upside finish at a good course for him this week.

Brad Thomas: Shane Lowry Top 20 +105 (DraftKings)

Shane Lowry is going to be one of the more popular bets on the board this week. Given his history here, that doesn’t come as a surprise. In his last four appearances here, he’s finished no worse than T11 and has logged three Top 5s along the way. His approach numbers here are insane. I expect that to continue.

Byron Lindeque: Shane Lowry Top 20 +105 (DraftKings)

Betting to win $100 every time a golfer plays, a Shane Lowry Top 20 at PGA National is the best bet you could have placed at this event over the last six years. He has cashed this bet in four consecutive starts, with an imaginary Top 11 market having cashed in all four of those years too. The course fit, the form and the friendliness this course has treated Lowry with should be enough to have him in the mix on Sunday afternoon, with a Top 20 finish as an afterthought.

Cody Williams: Mac Meissner Top 20 incl. ties +188 (BetMGM)

The ball-striking numbers for Mac Meissner overall won’t blow you away, but he’s Top 30 in the field both off the tee and on approach. However, what separates him this week at the Cognizant is the fact that he’s second in the field in proximity from 150-175 yards, 19th in Total Driving and fourth in SG: Putting on Bermuda. That’s the type of recipe that I’m looking for, and while I’ll also put some chips behind him outright, I feel even better about a Top 20 at this number.

Brian Giuffra: Nicolai Hojgaard Top 20 +115 (Bet365)

I think plus-money on my outright to finish Top 20 is good value. He’s finished in the Top 20 five of his last seven starts. He was Top 20 here last year. What more do I have to say.

Final Score Prediction

Iain MacMillan: -20
Brian Kirschner: -17
Brad Thomas: -19
Byron Lindeque: -21
Cody Williams: -18
Brian Giuffra: -17

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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