College Football Upset Picks for College Football Playoff Quarterfinals and Duke's Mayo Bowl

Iain MacMillan | 2 Hours Ago

Bet on Ole Miss to upset Georgia in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals. / Lauren Witte/Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Not only is the calendar flipping over to 2026, but it's time for some of the best college football games of the season. Not only do we have the playoff quarterfinals, but we also have a few intriguing bowl games to sink our teeth into.

If you're looking for a few upset bets, you're in the right place. There are two teams, I think, that have a chance of pulling off an upset on New Year's Day. Let's dive into them.

Best College Football Upset Picks

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

• Ole Miss +190 vs. Georgia
• Wake Forest +136 vs. Mississippi State

Ole Miss vs. Georgia Prediction

Ole Miss has a path to keeping this game close and potentially pulling off the upset. Georgia ranks 51st in the country in opponent rush success rate, which means the Rebels have a chance to establish their run game.

Georgia may also not be as good as you may think. The Bulldogs rank just 25th in the country in adjusted net EPA per play and 27th in net success rank. Ole Miss ranks 17th in adjusted net EPA, and they were able to go punch-for-punch with the Bulldogs in the regular season. Even without Lane Kiffin, I'm going to take a shot and bet on the Rebels to pull off the upset.

Pick: Ole Miss +190

Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State Prediction

Wake Forest's run defense is going to put them in a great spot to keep this game close. The Demon Deacons have allowed only 3.7 yards per carry this season and 2.6 yards per carry over their last three games. The Bulldogs are a run-first team, so if they can't find success on the ground against Wake Forest, this game is going to come down to the wire.

There are some metrics that show Wake Forest is the better overall team, including ranking 34th in net adjusted EPA per play this season, compared to Mississippi State at 68th.

For that reason, I'll take a shot on Wake Forest to pull off the upset in the Duke's Mayo Bowl.

Pick: Wake Forest +136

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