College Football Upset Picks for Week 14 (Don't Count Out Washington to Take Down Oregon)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 26, 2025

Bet on Washington to upset Oregon in college football Week 14 action. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

It's rivalry week in college football, which means it's the perfect time to try to cash in on a few upset winners! Not only is it rivalry week, but it's also the final week of the 2025 regular season, so we have to take advantage of the remaining opportunities we have left.

Let's dive into my top upset plays for Week 14.

CFB Week 14 Upset Picks

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

• Washington +200 vs. Oregon
• Vanderbilt +125 vs. Tennessee
• UNC +240 vs. NC State

Washington +200 vs. Oregon

Washington might be live to win this game and crush Oregon's playoff dreams. The Huskies enter this week ranking 15th in the country in net adjusted EPA per play and fifth in net success rate, which is better than Oregon, which comes in at seventh in that stat. The Huskies' offense has been strong this season, ranking 12th in adjusted EPA per play and fifth in success rate. They have the ability, especially with this game on their home field, to put up enough points to hang with the Ducks.

Vanderbilt +125 vs. Tennessee

People continue to doubt this Vanderbilt team, despite them being impressive all season. The Commodores are 14th in net adjusted EPA per play, while Tennessee ranks 64th. Vanderbilt is also 10th in net success rate, while Tennessee is 57th. Let's trust the advanced metrics and bet on Vanderbilt to pull off the upset.

UNC +240 vs. NC State

UNC got off to a terrible start to its season, but it's been quietly a lot better in recent weeks. Overall, they're now 70th in the country in net adjusted EPA per play, while NC State ranks 78th. Even more important than that, both teams are pass-first offenses, but the Tar Heels do a much better job of defending the pass. NC State gives up 8.4 yards per throw while ranking 120th in opponent dropback EPA. Meanwhile, UNC gives up 6.7 yards per throw and ranks 41st in opponent dropback EPA. That stylistic advantage for the Tar Heels will make them live to pull off this upset.

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