Colts vs. Broncos Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 15 (Does Denver Stay Perfect as Favorite?)

The Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts are both fresh off of a bye week heading into Sunday’s matchup in Week 15 in Denver.

Indianapolis (6-7) – the No. 8 seed in the AFC – has a chance to pick up a huge game on Denver (8-5, the No. 7 seed in the AFC) when it comes to the playoff race. A win would put the Colts just one game back of Denver with three to play – and it would give them the tiebreaker if these teams finish with the same record.

Now, the Broncos have played extremely well as of late, as rookie Bo Nix is in the mix for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award and the Denver defense ranks No. 2 in the NFL in EPA/Play.

But, Indy has been frisky as a road dog this season, covering the spread in four of its five games in that spot.

So, who wins this crucial matchup for the AFC playoff picture on Sunday?

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s my prediction for the final score of the Broncos-Colts clash.

Colts vs. Broncos Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Colts +4 (-112)
Broncos -4 (-108)

Moneyline

Colts: +150
Broncos: -180

Total

44 (Over -112/Under -108)

Denver has covered in all six games that it has been favored in this season, and it has won three games in a row to move to 8-5 on the season.

Meanwhile, the Colts are an elite team as a road underdog (4-1 ATS) and are 8-5 ATS overall in the 2024 campaign.

Colts vs. Broncos Final Score Prediction

SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan made a pick for this game in his Road to 272 bets column, and he’s siding with Nix and the Broncos to take care of business at home:

I'm still not a believer in Anthony Richardson. Amongst all quarterbacks who have played at least 224 snaps this season, he ranks dead last in EPA+CPOE composite at -0.018 and 30th in adjusted EPA per play. He had one solid start against the Jets but posted two straight bad performances after that. He has now completed just 47.4% of passes this season.

Now, he and the Colts have to face a Broncos defense that leads the NFL in opponent EPA and they rank second in opponent success rate. They've also been great at stopping the run, keeping teams to averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, meaning the Colts won't just be able to rely on Jonathan Taylor to carry them to victory.

Finally, it's worth noting the Broncos have the seventh best Net Yards per Play mark at home this season at +0.8 while the Colts have a road Net Yards per Play of -0.8, the sixth-worst mark.

Richardson’s turnovers are also a problem, as he’s thrown nine picks in nine games. The Broncos are an opportunistic defense – they scored two touchdowns against the Cleveland Browns in Week 13 – and have forced 18 turnovers in 13 games.

I lean with Denver to move to 7-0 ATS as a favorite this season.

Final Score Prediction: Broncos 23, Colts 17

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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