Colts vs. Jaguars Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 5 (Jacksonville Will Get First Win of Season)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are in a must-win situation and we're only in Week 5. They had high hopes of making the playoffs and potentially re-claiming the AFC South crown this season, but a disastrous 0-4 start has put their 2024 campaign on life support.

If they want to have any hope of saving their season, a win against the Indianapolis Colts is imperative. Meanwhile, the Colts will enter this game with a 2-2 record and they'll do their best to carry their momentum over from last week's victory against the Steelers into this week.

Let's take a look at the latest odds for the game and then I'll predict the exact final score.

Colts vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Colts +3 (-115)
Jaguars -3 (-105)

Moneyline

Colts: +130
Jaguars: -155

Total

46 (Over -110/Under -110)

The line has moved half a point in favor of the Jaguars. They opened as 2.5-point favorites but the line has since shifted half a point and now sits at Jaguars -3. That move is significant since the line has moved to the magic number of 3.0, meaning a potential last second field goal by Jacksonville to break a tie would result in a push on either side of the spread.

The total has moved down half a point from 46.5 to 46.0.

Colts vs. Jaguars Final Score Prediction

I'm on the side of the line movement in this AFC South showdown. As I broke down in this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets", I think the Jaguars get their first win of the season on Sunday:

The start of the Jaguars' season has been a disaster, still looking for their first win. You might be wondering why an 0-4 team is favored by almost a field goal against a team that's 2-2, fresh off a huge victory against a formerly undefeated Steelers team.

The answer, in my opinion, is the Jaguars are a lot better than their record indicates. Their losses to the Dolphins, Browns, and Texans could have easily been wins if not for late-game mistakes. If they even won two of those, would you look at them differently as a 2-2 team than you do right now?

The biggest thing working in the Jaguars' favor this week is their run defense which has kept teams to just 3.9 yards per carry, the seventh-best mark in the NFL. The key to beating the Colts is stopping the run so if the Jaguars can do exactly that, they're going to be in a good position to win and cover in this AFC South matchup.

When it comes to the total, I'll take the UNDER in this one. I have little faith in the Colts' offense and I think we could see both games run the ball and drain clock throughout.

Final score prediction: Colts 18, Jaguars 24

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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