Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 17

Who will win this NFC East battle?

The Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott are favored on Christmas. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Christmas Day’s NFL action kicks off with the Dallas Cowboys hitting the road to play the Washington Commanders in an NFC East clash that has unfortunately lost a lot of intrigue in recent weeks.

Both Dallas and Washington have been eliminated from playoff contention, as the Philadelphia Eagles clinched the NFC East with a win over Washington in Week 16. Dallas has dropped three games in a row since a huge Thanksgiving win over Kansas City, a terrible way to limp into the final two weeks of the regular season. The Cowboys are just 6-8-1 in 2025. 

Earlier this season, Dallas won a shootout with Washington 44-22, and it’s hoping to have another big offensive game with both of these teams ranking in the bottom 10 in the league in yards per play allowed and points allowed.

Dak Prescott has played at an MVP level this season, and he did torch the Commanders for 264 yards and three scores earlier in the campaign.

With Jayden Daniels (elbow) out for the season, Washington is a home underdog in this matchup. 

Here’s a look at the odds, a player to watch for some prop angles and my prediction for this Christmas Day clash. 

Cowboys vs. Commanders Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Cowboys -5.5 (-110)
• Commanders +5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Cowboys: -245
• Commanders: +200

Total

• 49.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Cowboys vs. Commanders How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Dec. 25
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Northwest Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): Netflix
• Cowboys record: 6-8-1
• Commanders record: 4-11

Cowboys vs. Commanders Betting Trends

• The Commanders are just 5-10 against the spread this season.
• The Cowboys are 7-8 against the spread this season. 
• Washington is 3-4 against the spread at home this season.
• Dallas is 3-4 against the spread on the road this season.
• Dallas is just 2-5 against the spread when favored in 2025. 
• The OVER is 10-4-1 in Dallas’ games this season.
• The OVER is 8-6-1 in Washington’s games this season. 

Cowboys vs. Commanders Injury Reports

Cowboys Injury Report

• Donovan Wilson – questionable 
• Ryan Flournoy – questionable
• DeMarvion Overshown – questionable
• Quinnen Williams – questionable 

Commanders Injury Report

• Jayden Daniels – out
• Jaylin Lane – doubtful
• Sam Cosmi – questionable
• Jer’Zhan Newton – questionable
• Brandon Coleman – questionable
• Marcus Mariota – questionable
• Laremy Tunsil – questionable

Cowboys vs. Commanders Key Player to Watch

George Pickens, Wide Receiver, Cowboys

After finishing with less than 40 receiving yards in Week 15 and Week 14, Pickens returned to form in the Cowboys’ loss to the Chargers on Sunday.

He finished with seven receptions for 130 yards and a score. He’s now up to 1,342 yards and nine touchdowns this season, operating as arguably the No. 1 option for Dak Prescott in the passing game. Pickens was held to just four catches the first time these teams met, but he still picked up 82 yards.

The Commanders entered Week 16 in dead last in the NFL in EPA/Pass, so this is a great matchup for Prescott, Pickens and Lamb to all have a big game. I love targeting Pickens in the prop market on Christmas. 

Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction and Pick

The last time these teams played, they combined for 66 points, and I think we could see another high-scoring affair in Week 17.

The Cowboys have hit the OVER in 66.7 percent of their games, and they rank in the bottom 10 in the league in yards per play allowed and points allowed this season. The bright side for Cowboys fans? Washington does too. 

Even though the Commanders are far from at full strength on offense, they still put up 18 points in Week 16 against the Eagles, and their defense has been torched all season long through the air, which is a good sign for Prescott and the pass-happy Dallas offense.

I can’t trust the Cowboys to cover – they’re just 2-5 against the spread when favored this season – but I do believe in their offense to put up a ton of points. 

With both teams eliminated from playoff contention, let’s root for a high-scoring game in this Christmas matchup. 

Pick: OVER 49.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.