Cowboys Win Total Projection for 2025 Season (Can Dallas Bounce Back?)

What a sad state of affairs last season was for “America’s Team.” A slew of season-ending injuries — including Dak Prescott — and a communication breakdown led to missing the playoffs for the first time in four years with a 7-10 record.

With Prescott the market favorite for Comeback Player of the Year, the Cowboys have a lot of pressure to bounce back, as always, but their win total projections give them a more modest outlook within an evolving NFC East.

Though the biggest offseason story is how Jerry Jones grew impatient and replaced head coach Mike McCarthy with former offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.

What can we make of an aging Prescott and a first-time coach? Here’s the scoop on what to look for in the Cowboys for 2025.

Dallas Cowboys 2025 Win Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Over 7.5 (-125)
Under 7.5 (+105)

Cowboys Look to Return to Winning Ways With Healthy Stars and New Coaching

Make no mistake that this team still has proven talent with CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons still in their primes. There are just lingering questions about their depth and direction. Prescott remains capable of keeping the team competitive, but beyond him, the roster has shown signs of erosion, especially after losing key role players — specifically in the backfield — over the last couple of seasons, with no one emerging in their place.

Aside from Parsons’ obvious impact, the front seven has flashes of dominance. They ranked 4th in pressure rate at 38.0% and 9th in pass rush win rate at 42% in 2024. But they’ll face some pressure, particularly given the Cowboys’ middling secondary, which could struggle against the increasingly pass-heavy offenses they’ll face. Several men in the secondary allowed troubling passer ratings last year, so the defense’s ability to keep games close will be crucial to Dallas’ chances of improvement.

Schedule-wise, Dallas is in the middle ground, but it has 10 games on the menu against playoff-caliber opponents from last season. This gauntlet includes multiple clashes against division rivals like the Eagles and Commanders, who both have legitimate Super Bowl chances.

George Pickens’ arrival in the receiving corps will make for a solid No. 2 target in complement to Lamb. I’d say that their ceilings will hinge on the offensive line’s ability to protect Prescott and open running lanes. Without improvements in protection and depth, the offense risks stalling against stronger defenses.

I’d target the Over if you’re feeling bullish because of how the Cowboys look on paper with Schottenheimer calling the shots for a team that had three-straight knock-out regular seasons before 2024.

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