Cubs vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, June 11

An afternoon rubber match will take place at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday, as the Chicago Cubs look to build on Tuesday’s 8-4 win over the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia has really struggled as of late, dropping eight of its last 10 games to fall five games back of the New York Mets in the NL East standings. On top of that, the Phillies have seen their run differential shink to just +12 in the 2025 season.

As for Chicago, the 2025 season has been a rousing success to this point. The Cubs are in first place in the NL Central at 41-26 and have the best run differential (+108) in the National League.

Youngster Pete Crow-Armstrong looks like an early MVP candidate, the Cubs are looking to build on a 6-4 stretch in their last 10 games.

On Wednesday afternoon, Chicago has Ben Brown on the bump against Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo, who has turned in some shaky outings as of late.

Let’s break down the odds, probable pitchers, players to bet in the prop market and my game prediction for this series finale.

Cubs vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

Cubs -1.5 (+156)
Phillies +1.5 (-191)

Moneyline

Cubs: -102
Phillies: -119

Total

8.5 (Over -120/Under -102)

Cubs vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

Chicago: Ben Brown (3-4, 5.37 ERA)
Philadelphia: Jesus Luzardo (5-2, 4.46 ERA)

Cubs vs. Phillies How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, June 11
Time: 1:05 p.m. EST
Venue: Citizens Bank Park
How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, NBCS-PH, MARQ
Cubs record: 41-26
Phillies record: 38-29

Cubs vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

Jesus Luzardo OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-185)

Luzardo has been knocked around in his last two starts, and he’s walked five batters in 5.2 innings across his last two outings.

The lefty is averaging 1.8 walks per game this season, but he still has multiple walks in nine of his 13 starts. This is a tough matchup against a Cubs team that has drawn the fourth-most free passes in MLB.

Luzardo has also given up at least two walks in five of his last six outings.

Cubs vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Over his last two starts, Luzardo has given up 21 hits, 20 runs and three home runs and five walks across just 5.2 innings of work.

Absolutely terrible.

The Phillies have lost both games, and the lefty’s ERA has skyrocketed from 2.15 to 4.46 in the process.

Luzardo and the Phillies believe that he has been tipping his pitches, and while that issue could be corrected, it’s really hard to trust him against one of the best offenses in baseball.

Chicago ranks second in runs scored, third in batting average, fourth in OPS and third in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) in the 2025 season. The Cubbies are coming off an eight-run game on Tuesday and average an MLB-best 5.58 runs per game.

That’s why I’m leaning with their team total OVER as my best bet in this matchup.

Luzardo’s advanced numbers have really taken a hit – he ranks in the 39th percentile in expected batting average against and 32nd percentile in hard-hit percentage – and he’s impossible to trust after getting shelled in his last two outings.

Pick: Cubs OVER 4.5 Runs (+105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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