Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Oneil Cruz Highlight Top Predictions)

Major League Baseball features a shorter slate on Monday, but what better way to open the week than betting on a few players to hit a home run?

New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge has cleared the 50 homer mark this season, and I have to place a wager on him to go yard against the Washington Nationals tonight – even though the odds aren’t the best.

Outside of Judge, there are two plays with much more value that I love, including one slugger who is facing a pitcher that has already given up 23 homers on the season.

Let’s dive into the home run picks for Monday, Aug. 26!

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 26

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Oneil Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+290)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+425)
Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+130)

Oneil Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+290)

Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz has a favorable matchup on Monday night, taking on a struggling Jameson Taillon and the Chicago Cubs.

Taillon has posted a 6.84 ERA over his last five starts, giving up seven homers over that stretch. While Cruz has only faced Taillon a few times in his career, he’s been elite against right-handed pitching in 2024, posting a .289 batting average with 13 of his 18 home runs.

This isn’t the best price you’ll find on the board, but Cruz is worth a shot with Taillon’s ERA on the rise over the last month.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+425)

Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 27 homers on the season, and he has a dream matchup on Monday night against the Boston Red Sox.

Boston is sending Nick Pivetta to the mound, and the righty has given up 23 homers in 20 appearances in 2024, including at least two homers in each of his last five starts.

So, I expect a Blue Jay to get a hold of one tonight. Vladdy is in a great spot to do so, as he already has three homers in his career against Pivetta while slugging .529.

Not only that, but Boston has one of the worst bullpen ERAs in the league (4.48) while allowing 65 home runs.

This is a perfect spot for the All-Star first baseman to go deep.

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+130)

Since May 1, Judge is hitting .376 with 45 home runs and 104 runs batted in (98 games).

Those would be amazing numbers for a full season, and yet he’s done it in less than 100 games after a slow start in April. Judge is coming off a two-homer game against the Colorado Rockies, which pushed him to 51 bombs on the season, and he’s now slugging an absurd .736.

While this isn’t a great number to bet the AL MVP favorite at – he’s still worth a wager during yet another hot stretch.

Washington Nationals starter Mitchell Parker has given up 16 homers this season, and 15 of them have come to right-handed hitters. Don’t be shocked if Judge hits No. 52 tonight.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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