Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Yordan Alvarez Highlights Betting Predictions)

With baseball raging all day in the final days of August, let’s go to the home run prop bet market.

With several high-end pitchers taking the mound, pickings are somewhat slim to find home run prop bet value, so I’m sticking to some of the premier bats in the sport like Yordan Alvarez and Marcel Ozuna as well as budding star Jackson Merrill to go deep on Wednesday.

Find out why below!

Best Home Run Prop Bets for Wednesday, August 28th

Yordan Alvarez (+220)
Jackson Merrill (+500)
Marcel Ozuna (+370)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Yordan Alvarez

With the wind blowing out at Citizens Bank Park to right field at more than nine miles per hour, it's ripe for a Yordan Alvarez big fly.

The left-handed slugger draws Taijuan Walker on Wednesday afternoon, who has lost most of his potency as a pitcher, battling injuries and overall ineffectiveness. He ranks in the first percentile in xERA across 13 starts (6.70) and has allowed hard contact on 50% of balls in play.

Enter Alvarez, who is 98th percentile in xSLG, 87th percentile in hard-hit rate with 25 home runs to his name.

Jackson Merrill

Merrill continues to put the ball in play with pretty legitimate contact.

The Rookie of the Year frontrunner is in the 94th xSLG while making hard contact on nearly 44% of balls in play, good for 69th percentile. He has 19 home runs, an above-average amount, with a .292 batting average.

He is consistently making contact, and he gets a good matchup on Wednesday against Andre Pallante and a suspect Cardinals bullpen that may have limited lefties in the bullpen after a taxing two games against the Padres already.

Merrill is hitting .318 against righties with a .539 slugging, key against Pallante, who doesn’t get many swing and misses.

Marcel Ozuna

Ozuna is one of the best bats in Major League Baseball, hunting for a triple crown in the National League, and gets to bolster his standing against Twins prospect David Festa on Wednesday, who has allowed 7 home runs in eight appearances in the big leagues.

Right-handers have had an edge on Festa in a small sample size, hitting .268 with three fence-clearing blasts, and now he draws Ozuna, who is in the 99th percentile in xSLG percentage.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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