Dante Moore Decision Makes Fernando Mendoza Massive Favorite to be No. 1 Pick

Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore made a massive decision for his future on Wednesday, as he announced that he'll be returning to school for the 2026 season instead of declaring for the 2026 NFL Draft.

Moore, who was widely considered one of the top two quarterbacks in the potential 2026 class, will now focus on entering the draft in 2027.

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore has decided to return to school for the 2026 season, he told ESPN @SportsCenter, forgoing a chance to be a top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. He’ll project near the top of a loaded quarterback class for 2027. pic.twitter.com/9OqDt15t96
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) January 14, 2026

That has caused a massive shakeup in the odds for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, as Moore was the No. 2 choice before his announcement at +650. Now, Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (who was the -1200 favorite) is -7000 to be picked at No. 1 by the Las Vegas Raiders.

Mendoza, who has led the Hoosiers to an undefeated 2025 season and the final of the College Football Playoff, has an implied probability of 98.59% to be the No. 1 pick based on the latest odds.

With Moore out of the 2026 NFL Draft class, Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson (+7500) and Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (+10000) are the next two quarterbacks in the odds to be selected No. 1 overall.

2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Fernando Mendoza: -7000
Rueben Bain Jr.: +5000
Arvell Reese: +5500
Ty Simpson:+7500
Caleb Downs: +10000
Keldric Faulk: +10000
Jordyn Tyson: +10000
Trinidad Chambliss: +10000
Carnell Tate: +12500

Moore's decision may not alter the Raiders' plans at No. 1 in the 2026 NFL Draft, but it certainly impacts every team after that. The New York Jets -- who have the No. 2 pick -- may have to pivot with their draft selection if they don't view Chambliss or Simpson as high first-round talents.

Prior to Moore's announcement, he and Mendoza were widely considered as the top two options at quarterback in this class, and with a lot of teams in need of quarterback help, there's a chance someone reaches for another player early on in the draft.

For the Raiders, this might make the decision even clearer at No. 1. Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy this season and has shown all season long that he's the best quarterback in the country. Las Vegas still has Geno Smith under contract, but after a disastrous 2025 season, it could look to start fresh with a new coach and quarterback.

It'll be interesting to see if anyone pushes Mendoza for the top spot in the 2026 NFL Draft, as the pre-draft process plays out.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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