Dayton vs. George Mason Prediction, Odds for College Basketball on Wednesday, Feb. 18

Two top-five teams in the A-10 face off on Wednesday night, as the Dayton Flyers hit the road to take on the George Mason Patriots.

Dayton knocked off Davidson in its last game, hopefully turning around what has been a rough stretch in conference play. The Flyers are just 7-5 in A-10 action, and they have lost five of their last seven games.

George Mason, on the other hand, is 9-4 in A-10 play and 15-1 at home in the 2025-26 season. The Patriots have struggled a bit as of late, losing back-to-back games against Richmond and George Washington, but they are still 21-5 this season.

Saint Louis and VCU are the clear top two teams in the A-10, but the Patriots could end up winning the conference if they get a favorable draw in the A-10 tournament. As of Wednesday, KenPom has George Mason as the No. 97 team in the country while the Flyers clock in at No. 92.

Oddsmakers have George Mason favored by 1.5 points in what is the only meeting between these conference opponents this season.

Dayton vs. George Mason Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Dayton +1.5 (-105)
George Mason -1.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Dayton: +110
George Mason: -130

Total

137.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Dayton vs. George Mason How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Feb. 18
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: EagleBank Arena
How to Watch (TV): CBSSN
Dayton record: 16-9
George Mason record: 21-5

Dayton vs. George Mason Key Player to Watch

Kory Mincy, Guard, George Mason

A junior out of East Point, Georgia, Mincy has put together a solid 2025-26 season for the Patriots. He’s averaging a team-high 15.2 points per game while also leading the squad in field goal percentage (46.4 percent).

Mincy has knocked down 40.7 percent of his 3-point attempts, and he’s averaging 3.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.1 steals per game.

Both of these teams hang their hat on the defensive end of the floor, so it may take a big game from a star like Mincy to sway this matchup. In 16 home games, Mincy is averaging 15.3 points per game, but he’s struggled as of late, scoring five or fewer points in each of his last three matchups.

Can he bounce back on Wednesday?

Dayton vs. George Mason Prediction and Pick

Dayton is one of the better defensive teams in the country, even though it has struggled to pick up wins in recent weeks.

The Flyers are 49th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, and they rank fifth in the land in opponent effective field goal percentage. Not only that, but the Flyers have hit the UNDER in 15 of their 25 games in the 2025-26 season.

As for George Mason, it ranks 73rd in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage and 83rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Both of these teams rank outside the top-100 in adjusted offensive efficiency, with the Flyers clocking in at No. 154.

In addition to that, the biggest reason why I like the UNDER in this game is due to the slow pace that the Patriots play at this season. They rank 332nd in the country in adjusted tempo, and Dayton (137th in adjusted tempo) may be willing to slow things down and rely on defense to win this game.

George Mason has combined for less than 137.5 points in 12 games this season, going 12-13 to the UNDER overall.

Pick: UNDER 137.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.