Dayton vs. VCU Prediction, Odds, How to Watch A-10 Championship Final

A potential bid stealer is alive in the A-10 Championship, as the Dayton Flyers upset the Saint Louis Billikens on Saturday to earn a place in the A-10 championship game.

The Flyers (23-10) almost certainly need to win this game against the VCU Rams to clinch a spot in the NCAA Tournament, as the Billikens – who were ranked heading into the postseason – are almost guaranteed to have an at-large bid. Meanwhile, VCU (26-7) is on the bubble and may need Sunday’s win to get into the NCAA Tournament as well.

These teams met twice in the regular season with the Flyers falling short both times. Dayton was crushed in the first meeting by 26 points, but it only lost by six in the final game of the regular season against VCU.

Oddsmakers have the Rams favored by just 3.5 points in this matchup, but the No. 2 seed was pretty dominant in A-10 play, finishing tied with the Billikens at 15-3 for the best record against the conference.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for Sunday’s A-10 Championship Final.

Dayton vs. VCU Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Dayton +3.5 (-115)
VCU -3.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Dayton: +136
VCU: -162

Total

140.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Dayton vs. VCU How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 15
Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
Venue: PPG Paints Arena
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Dayton record: 23-10
VCU record: 26-7

Dayton vs. VCU Key Player to Watch

Terrence Hill Jr., Guard, VCU

Sophomore guard Terrence Hill Jr. leads the Rams in points per game (14.4) and assists per game (2.8) in the 2025-26 season while shooting 46.3 percent from the field and 36.1 percent from 3-point range.

Hill had a solid showing against Dayton in the final regular-season game of the season, putting up 13 points and three dimes in a six-point win. He also had 14 points earlier this season in a blowout 99-73 VCU win over the Flyers.

The sophomore has shown out in the A-10 Tournament, dropping 20 points and six dimes in a quarterfinal win over Duquesne before Saturday’s 18-point showing in a win over Saint Joseph’s. Can Hill have another big game on Sunday?

Dayton vs. VCU Prediction and Pick

Dayton has made a nice run in the A-10 tourney, and it did close the regular season by winning six of its final seven games.

Still, the Flyers rank outside the top-140 in both effective field goal percentage and opponent effective field goal percentage, making them a tough team to trust against a potent Rams offense. VCU is 46th in the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, and it ranks 61st or better in both eFG% and opponent eFG%.

While the Flyers are inside the top 40 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, they struggle to defend the 3-ball this season, allowing opponents to make 35.3 percent of their attempts (262nd in the country). That’s going to be a problem against VCU, which is 40th in the country in 3-point percentage on offense.

The Rams also do a great job of getting to the line, ranking 12th in the land in free-throw rate.

VCU already has two wins by two possessions (or much more in the case of the 26-point win) against the Flyers this season, and Dayton’s one-point win over Saint Louis doesn’t sway my thinking in this game.

I think the Rams lock up their NCAA Tournament spot on Sunday afternoon.

Pick: VCU -3.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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