Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Friday, May 1

May baseball begins with an afternoon matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs, two teams with playoff expectations in the 2026 season.

Chicago is off to a fast start, winning seven of its last 10 games to get to 19-12 in 2026. While the Cubbies are in second place in the NL Central, they have an impressive plus-35 run differential and rank in the top four in MLB in runs scored, batting average and OPS.

That makes them a tough matchup for the D-Backs, who are coming off a blowout loss to the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday afternoon. Arizona is still two games over .500 – sitting in third in the NL West – but it is just 7-8 on the road and has a minus-24 run differential after yesterday’s 13-1 loss.

Can the D-Backs bounce back in this series opener?

Righty Zac Gallen (3.14 ERA) is on the mound for the D-Backs against Chicago’s Collin Rea (4.61 ERA). The Cubs have been forced to make some moves in their rotation after youngster Cade Horton injured his elbow early in 2026, ending his season.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this matinee matchup to kick off May.

Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Diamondbacks +1.5 (-181)
Cubs -1.5 (+149)

Moneyline

Diamondbacks: +119
Cubs: -143

Total

7 (Over -112/Under -108)

Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Probable Pitchers

Arizona: Zac Gallen (1-1, 3.14 ERA)
Chicago: Collin Rea (3-1, 4.61 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs. Cubs How to Watch

Date: Friday, May 1
Time: 2:20 p.m. EST
Venue: Wrigley Field
How to Watch (TV): Marquee Sports Network, DBACKS.TV
Diamondbacks record: 16-14
Cubs record: 19-12

Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Best MLB Prop Bets

Cubs Best MLB Prop Bet

Michael Busch 2+ Total Bases (+200)

It’s been a slow start to the season for Cubs infielder Michael Busch, but I’m backing him in this matchup with Zac Gallen.

Gallen has allowed 32 hits already in the 2026 season, and he ranks in the 11th percentile in opponent expected batting average. So, this could be a game for Busch to break out of his slump, as he’s hitting just .193 in the 2026 campaign.

In his career against Gallen, Busch is 4-for-9 with a double and a home run, so it’s certainly possible he hits a two-bagger – or more – in this matchup. Plus, Arizona has a shaky bullpen (25th in bullpen ERA) which could help Busch in the later innings.

He’s at least worth a look at +200 in this market.

Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams have hit the OVER at a high rate in the 2026 season, and I think the total on Friday afternoon is a little low given the pitching matchup.

So far in 2026, the Cubs have hit the OVER in 20 of their 31 games (20-10-1) while Arizona isn’t far behind at 18-11-1. They’re both at a hit rate of over 62 percent.

I mentioned the Cubs’ offensive prowess this season, as they’re top five in the league in OPS, batting average and runs scored while ranking second in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Arizona’s offense is pretty good as well, ranking 12th in wRC+, 14th in runs scored, ninth in batting average and ninth in OPS this season.

When it comes to today’s starters, Gallen and Rea don’t exactly have great advanced profiles. Let’s start with Gallen, who allowed three or fewer runs in all five of his starts in April.

He has an expected ERA of 4.93 (28th percentile) and an expected batting average against of .296 (11th percentile) this season. Gallen has really struggled to generate swings and misses, ranking in the eighth percentile in whiff percentage and the 10th percentile in strikeout percentage.

That could be a major issue against a Cubs team that has one of the best averages in Major League Baseball. Gallen has allowed more hits (32) than innings pitched (28.2) this season.

As for Rea, he already has a 4.61 actual ERA, so his expected ERA sitting at 4.26 isn’t surprising. The righty ranks in just the fifth percentile in average exit velocity against and the 17th percentile in hard-hit percentage.

In addition to this, Arizona has one of the worst bullpens in Major League Baseball this season, posting a 5.03 ERA. So, these teams may not even need to get to the starters to clear this total on Friday afternoon.

Pick: OVER 7 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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