Duke vs. UCLA Prediction, Odds, Key Player for Women’s NCAA Tournament Elite 8

A trip to the Final Four is on the line on Sunday afternoon, as the No. 1 UCLA Bruins take on the No. 3 Duke Blue Devils in the Elite 8.

Ashlon Jackson sent the Blue Devils to the Elite 8 on Friday night with an insane game-winning shot against LSU, saving Duke from blowing a 84-75 lead in the final 3:35 of that game.

Now, the Blue Devils are double-digit underdogs against the Bruins, who have dropped just one game all season long and are looking to make the national championship after falling short in the 2024-25 season.

UCLA scored 80-plus points for the third NCAA Tournament game in a row in the Sweet 16, knocking off the Minnesota Golden Gophers by 24 points.

These teams played back on No. 27, and UCLA won that game with ease, 89-59. The Blue Devils have played well in the NCAA Tournament, but they have some bad losses this season to Clemson, South Florida, Baylor and West Virginia. A lot of those came early in the season, but the Blue Devils clearly aren’t on the same level as this UCLA team.

So, who should we bet on in this matchup with such a lopsided spread?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Elite 8 showdown.

Duke vs. UCLA Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Duke +11.5 (-118)
UCLA -11.5 (-104)

Moneyline

Duke: +540
UCLA: -850

Total

130.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Duke vs. UCLA How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 29
Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Golden 1 Center
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Duke record: 27-8
UCLA record: 34-1

Duke vs. UCLA Key Player to Watch

Lauren Betts, Center, UCLA

One of the most dominant players in the country, Lauren Betts did not play in the Bruins’ 30-point win over Duke earlier this season.

So, this will be her first crack at Kara Lawson’s squad, and she’s been great so far in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Betts has scored 22, 35 and 16 points in her three games, pulling down 24 total rebounds and blocking seven shots. She had five blocks in the Sweet 16 win over Minnesota on Friday.

This season, Betts is averaging 17.1 points, 8.6 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game while shooting over 57 percent from the field. It’ll be interesting to see how Duke defends her since it struggled against UCLA earlier this season without the star center in the lineup.

Duke vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick

Duke is a much better team now than it was early in the season when these teams played, but the Blue Devils’ offense is a major concern for me in this matchup.

Not only did Duke almost blow a nine-point lead in three minutes against LSU in the Sweet 16, but it ranks 77th in the country in effective field goal percentage, 92nd in turnover rate and is outside the top 250 in 3-point rate.

That’s going to make it tough for Duke to upset the Bruins, who are No. 1 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (per Bart Torvik) and No. 2 in effective field goal percentage. Duke’s defense (No. 4 in adjusted defensive efficiency) has helped it win games all season long, but can it slow down a potent UCLA attack?

The Blue Devils just gave up 85 points to LSU, and they haven't fared well against the best teams in the country, going 1-3 against top-10 teams in the regular season (the lone win was a one-point victory over then-No. 6 Louisville).

The Bruins are also just one spot behind Duke (11th) in opponent effective field goal percentage this season and have just three wins by less than 11 points in the 2025-26 season.

I think UCLA runs away with this matchup on Sunday afternoon.

Pick: UCLA -11.5 (-104 at FanDuel)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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