Elena Rybakina vs. Iga Swiatek Prediction, Odds for Australian Open Quarterfinals

A pair of top-five players face off in the Australian Open quarterfinals, as No. 2 Iga Swiatek takes on No. 5 Elena Rybakina.

This will be the 12th meeting between the two all time, and they played a handful of matches in 2025, which has led to oddsmakers setting this match as a pick’em at Melbourne Park.

Here’s a look at the 2025 matches between Rybakina and Swiatek:

WTA Finals: Rybakina Wins (3-6, 6-1, 6-0)
Cincinnati Open: Swiatek Wins (7-5, 6-3)
French Open: Swiatek Wins (1-6, 6-3, 7-5)
Doha – ATP Qatar Open: Swiatek Wins (6-2, 7-5)
United Cup: Swiatek Wins (7-6, 6-4)

So, four of Swiatek’s six wins against Rybakina have come in the last year, making this an intriguing bout with a trip to the semifinals on the line.

Rybakina has yet to drop a set at this year’s Australian Open, and she’s looking to get back to the final for the first time since she was the runner-up in 2023.

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s path to the quarterfinals and my prediction for this highly-anticipated match.

Elena Rybakina vs. Iga Swiatek Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Elena Rybakina: -111
Iga Swiatek: -110

Total

22.5 (Over -130/Under -115)

Elena Rybakina vs. Iga Swiatek How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Jan. 27
Time: TBA
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Elena Rybakina vs. Iga Swiatek History and Path to Quarterfinals

Elena Rybakina

Rybakina was the runner-up in the 2023 Australian Open, but this is her only other quarterfinal appearance of her career at Melbourne Park. A Wimbledon winner back in 2022, Rybakina has won on the highest stage, even though she didn’t make a single quarterfinal appearance at a Grand Slam in 2025.

On the bright side, she finished 2025 with a win over Rybakina in the WTA Finals, and she’s beaten her five of the 11 times that they’ve played in their careers. Rybakina beat Swiatek in straight sets at the Australian Open in 2023 on her way to the final.

This year, the No. 5 player in the world has been pretty dominant at Melbourne Park, winning all of her matches in straight sets. She lost just four games to No. 21 Elise Mertens in the fourth round.

Iga Swiatek

2025 was a great year for Swiatek, as she won Wimbledon, made the semifinals in both the Australian and French Open and the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open. She also was 4-1 against Rybakina throughout the year, taking the lead in their head-to-head matchups.

The path to the quarters at Melbourne Park this year has been relatively easy for Swiatek, as she’s only faced one player ranked in the top-32 (No. 31 Anna Kalinskaya) and ended up losing a set to her.

However, Swiatek had a strong showing in the fourth round, winning 6-0, 6-3 against Maddison Inglis.

Elena Rybakina vs. Iga Swiatek Prediction and Pick

This match is shaping up to be a complete toss up, so why don’t we take a plus money bet for it to go the distance?

Swiatek and Rybakina have both showcased their dominance at times in this tournament, including two easy wins in the fourth round. Given all of their history against each other, I wouldn’t be shocked to see this match move to a third set.

Rybakina won the last meeting between these two in three sets, and they have gone to a third set three times in 11 matchups against each other.

Since both players appear to be in peak form at Melbourne Park, I don’t love taking either on the moneyline. Rybakina has been better than Swiatek early in 2026, winning 74.5% of her first serves and 81.2% of her service games (both higher percentages than the No. 2 player in the world).

Still, Swiatek wins more of her return games in 2026 (44.0%) and has won an impressive 46.6% of her return points.

Rybakina’s serving should help her win at least one set in this match, and I love the +105 price on this match to go the distance.

Pick: Total Sets OVER 2.5 (+105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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