Every NBA Team’s Win Total Projection for 2025-26 Season (Thunder, Cavs Have Highest Win Totals)

Breaking down the win total projection for every NBA team in the 2025-26 season.

The Oklahoma City Thunder and guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are projected to win over 60 games again. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The 2025-26 NBA season begins in just a few days, and oddsmakers have set win total projections for every team ahead of opening night. 

To no one’s surprise, the Oklahoma City Thunder have the highest win total projection in the NBA at 62.5, while the Cleveland Cavaliers (56.5) are in second. 

The lowest win total? That belongs to the Utah Jazz, who are set at just 18.5 wins in the 2025-26 season after going 17-65 last season.

Win totals are a great way for fans to see how Vegas expects their squad to fare in the 2025-26 season and I’m sharing each win total – and my lean for the team (OVER or UNDER) ahead of the start of the NBA season.

Let’s talk some ball! 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Oklahoma City Thunder Win Total Projection

• 62.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

The Thunder won 68 games in the 2024-25 season with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein both missing significant time. Unless the team deals with a major injury, it should be right back in the mix to win 65 or more games this season.

Don’t forget, OKC had the No. 1 defense in the NBA in the 2024-25 season and returned all of its rotation from its championship run. 

Cleveland Cavaliers Win Total Projection

• 56.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Cleveland won 64 games in the 2024-25 campaign, but I lean under this number for a Cavs team that is likely going to prioritize the playoffs over the regular season. Cleveland should end up in the top two in the East, but injuries to Darius Garland and Max Strus to start the year certainly lower the Cavs’ ceiling a bit.  

Denver Nuggets Win Total Projection

• 54.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Denver won 50 games in the 2024-25 season and now has more depth, but I lean UNDER on this total in a loaded Western Conference. After the 68-win Thunder last season, seven teams won between 52 and 48 games. I could see that being the case again this season. 

Houston Rockets Win Total Projection

• 53.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Houston had a 52-win 2024-25 season and added Kevin Durant in the offseason, but it lost Fred VanVleet to a torn ACL. The Rockets are 79-54 over the last two seasons when FVV plays, and they are just 14-17 in the 31 games that he has missed.

I lean UNDER here with this team having a ton of questions in the backcourt. 

New York Knicks Win Total Projection

• 53.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Knicks added a bunch of depth in Jordan Clarkson, Guerschon Yabusele and more, and they should have a healthy Mitchell Robinson to start the 2025-26 season. After back-to-back 50+ win seasons, I think it’s reasonable to expect the Knicks to clear this line if Jalen Brunson is healthy. 

Orlando Magic Win Total Projection

• 50.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

This is a massive jump for an Orlando team that added Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones in the offseason after an injury-riddled 41-41 2024-25 campaign. 

I lean UNDER here, but only slightly. The Magic have to prove that their offense is good enough to be one of the elite teams in the NBA this season. 

 Minnesota Timberwolves Win Total Projection

• 48.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

The Timberwolves won 49 games in the 2024-25 season while integrating Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo into the fold. While they lost Nickeil Alexander-Walker in the offseason, Minnesota still projects to be a top-six Western Conference team. 

I like the OVER here, as the Wolves have cleared this line in back-to-back seasons and have 42 or more wins in all of Chris Finch’s season as their head coach. 

Los Angeles Clippers Win Total Projection

• 47.5 (Over -125/Under +100)

Health will be crucial for a veteran Clippers team that swapped out Norman Powell for Bradley Beal and John Collins in the offseason. 

L.A. was a 50-win team last season and 26-11 when Kawhi Leonard played, so I lean OVER on this total. However, Leonard’s health could torpedo things, so bettors should exercise caution in this market. 

Atlanta Hawks Win Total Projection

• 47.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

The Hawks made a bunch of offseason additions, adding Luke Kennard, Nickeil-Alexander Walker and Kristaps Porzingis to their roster. As a result, oddsmakers have bumped the Hawks all the way to 47.5 wins in the 2025-26 season. 

I think that total may be a little high, as only five teams in the Eastern Conference cleared that total last season and they were led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, Tyrese Haliburton, Jalen Brunson, Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell. 

Trae Young will have his work cut out for him in the 2025-26 season.

Los Angeles Lakers Win Total Projection

• 46.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

The Lakers’ win total has dropped a bit since it was announced that LeBron James would miss the start of the regular season, but L.A. is coming off a 50-win 2025-26 season. 

With Luka Doncic healthy and in the fold right away, the Lakers should be good enough to clear this line this season. 

Golden State Warriors Win Total Projection

• 46.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

I also love the OVER for the Golden State Warriors, who have a full season of Jimmy Butler and added Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton and others this offseason. The Warriors – despite a bad losing streak before the Butler trade – won 48 games last season. They were 23-7 in the 30 games that Butler played in. 

Detroit Pistons Win Total Projection

• 46.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

I think this win total could go either way, as the Pistons made a major leap to win 44 games in the 2025-26 season.

Cade Cunningham is a fringe MVP candidate, and it’ll be interesting to see how Caris LeVert, Jaden Ivey and Duncan Robinson fit into this core that made the playoffs last season. I don’t mind the OVER, but a 46-win season would seem pretty reasonable for this group. 

San Antonio Spurs Win Total Projection

• 44.5 (Over -105/Under -120)

I think this win total may be a little high for the Spurs in a loaded Western Conference – especially with De’Aaron Fox dealing with a hamstring injury.

However, Victor Wembanyama could make a third-year leap with an improved supporting cast that suddenly vaults the Spurs into the top six in the West. I think this team may have the most potential variance of any team in the West. 

Milwaukee Bucks Win Total Projection

• 43.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

The Bucks are expected to take a step back with Damian Lillard gone and Myles Turner in, but there is an interesting trend to watch if you believe in Giannis. 

The Bucks have won 44 or more games in each of the last eight seasons with him leading the way, and he’s been a top-four MVP candidate in seven of them. I love the Bucks to go OVER this number, but it does all depend on Giannis’ health. 

Philadelphia 76ers Win Total Projection

• 42.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

After a disaster of a 2024-25 season, the 76ers are set at 42.5 in the 2025-26 campaign, but it’s hard to trust them with Paul George and Joel Embiid already banged up. Unless Embiid defies the odds and plays 50 or more games, Philly is more than likely going to finish short of this total. 

Boston Celtics Win Total Projection

• 41.5 (Over -110/Under -115)

With Jayson Tatum (Achilles) out, Boston is expected to take a step back, but I wouldn't be shocked to see this team finish over .500. 

The C’s still have Jaylen Brown and Derrick White, and they’ll likely play an uptempo style and hoist a ton of 3s to stay in games in the 2025-26 season. 

Memphis Grizzlies Win Total Projection

• 39.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Memphis is already dealing with injuries to Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey, making it tough to trust this team – which moved on from Desmond Bane – to finish over .500 in the West.

When Morant plays, the Grizzlies are usually a playoff team, but he’s only played 120 games over the last three seasons.  

Dallas Mavericks Win Total Projection

• 39.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Dallas could end up well over this total if Kyrie Irving returns this season, but regardless the Mavs have a lot of frontcourt depth that should make them one of the better defensive teams in the league.

I think this is a solid OVER target, especially if you believe in Cooper Flagg stepping into make an immediate impact. 

Toronto Raptors Win Total Projection

• 38.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

This win total has shot up for the Raptors, but I have a hard time taking the OVER. The Raptors lack floor-spacing with Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram and Jakob Poeltl as their best lineup, and they struggled to stay healthy last season.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Toronto is in the play-in tournament, but it would need a nine-win jump to clear this total in the 2025-26 campaign.  

Indiana Pacers Win Total Projection

• 37.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

With Tyrese Haliburton out for the season, oddsmakers are expecting the Pacers to take a step back. 

Indiana still has Pascal Siakam, but there are going to be some offensive questions night to night. The loss of Myles Turner looms large as well, and since the Pacers have their pick, I wouldn't be shocked if they’re content to fall short of this line and end up in the lottery. 

Miami Heat Win Total Projection

• 36.5 (Over -115/Under -110)

Tyler Herro’s injury to start the season puts a damper on Miami’s outlook, but the addition of Norman Powell and a full season of Andrew Wiggins does give this team some intriguing upside. 

I like the OVER for the Heat if Herro can return and play in about 50 or so games this season. 

Sacramento Kings Win Total Projection

• 35.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Another year of DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis screams play-in hopeful in the West for the Kings. 

They did win 40 games in the 2024-25 season, and I think they could clear this line, even if teams like the Spurs and Pelicans improve in the 2025-26 season. 

Portland Trail Blazers Win Total Projection

• 34.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

I don’t know what to make of this Portland team. It has a lot of intriguing young pieces, but it also has overpaid vets in Jrue Holiday and Jerami Grant. The Blazers went on a late run in the 2024-25 season to finish with 36 wins, but I don’t see a much higher ceiling than that this season.

I think they’re worth a look to go OVER, but I don’t feel great about it. 

Chicago Bulls Win Total Projection

• 32.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

The Chicago Bulls live in the NBA’s play-in tournament, and they’ve had a really discernible floor in the Billy Donovan era.

Chicago has finished with 39, 39, 40, 46 and 31 (in 72-game season) wins in Donovan’s tenure, and I think this line is way too low for a team that brought back Josh Giddey in the offseason. 

Phoenix Suns Win Total Projection

• 30.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

The Suns could end up as one of the worst teams in the Western Conference, as they have a lot of questions on their roster after Devin Booker. With Booker and Durant (and Beal) the Suns won just 36 games last season.

They are an easy UNDER if Booker misses any time in the 2025-26 season. 

New Orleans Pelicans Win Total Projection

• 30.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

The Pelicans are incentivized to win this season since they traded away their 2026 first-round pick (unprotected) to Atlanta, but I don’t know if they have enough talent to reach the mid-30s in wins. 

They could end up OVER this number if Zion Williamson stays relatively healthy, but he’s only played over 30 games twice in his career.  

Charlotte Hornets Win Total Projection

• 25.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Can LaMelo Ball and Brnaodn Miller stay healthy? 

If so, I don’t mind the OVER for this Charlotte team that won just 19 games in the 2025-26 season. Still, the team lacks depth at center and has fallen short of this total in back-to-back seasons. 

Washington Wizards Win Total Projection

• 20.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Washington is in a full rebuild, and I would expect it to move on from CJ McCollum or Khris Middleton if it can find a taker at the deadline. The Wizards have some interesting young talent, but they won just 18 games last season. 

I lean UNDER this season. 

Brooklyn Nets Win Total Projection

• 20.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Brooklyn has moved on from a lot of solid veterans and will likely try to move on from more during the regular season. 

Jordi Fernandez is a really good coach, leading this team to 26 wins last season, but if Brooklyn does go OVER this total, it won’t be by much. 

Utah Jazz Win Total Projection

• 18.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Utah is in full tank mode after letting several key veterans go in the offseason, and it could put the final nail in the coffin by trading Lauri Markkanen during the season. 

In a loaded Western Conference, I could see the Jazz being right back in the 17-65 range in the 2025-26 season. 

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