Every Team’s Odds to Win Western Conference in 2025-26 NBA Season: Thunder Favored Over Nuggets

Oddsmakers don't expect Western Conference teams to keep up with the Thunder.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder are favored to win the Western Conference for a second consecutive year. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The 2025-26 NBA season is just around the corner and teams are gearing up to try and dethrone the Oklahoma City Thunder following their victory over the Indiana Pacers in the 2025 NBA Finals.

OKC has finished atop the Western Conference’s regular-season standings in two straight seasons and is an overwhelming favorite (+130) to win the Western Conference for a second consecutive year. 

That’s not surprising given how dominant the Thunder were in their latest campaign. They were a top-five team on offense and defense and will bring back all of their key players from the previous season to support reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Can any other team make the 2025-26 race interesting?

Here’s the full odds outlook for the conference alongside breakdowns for the teams who might be worth keeping an eye on.

Odds to Win the Western Conference in 2025-26 Season

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Oklahoma City Thunder: +130
• Denver Nuggets: +480
• Los Angeles Lakers: +850
• Houston Rockets: +950
• Los Angeles Clippers: +1100
• Minnesota Timberwolves: +1200
• Golden State Warriors: +1800
• Dallas Mavericks: +2200
• San Antonio Spurs: +3300
• Memphis Grizzlies: +6500
• Portland Trail Blazers: +22500
• Sacramento Kings: +22500
• Phoenix Suns: +30000
• New Orleans Pelicans: +30000
• Utah Jazz: +50000

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have it all. SGA led the NBA in scoring with 32.7 points per contest last season and six other OKC players averaged more than 10.0 points per game. Only four teams could top their mark of 120.5 points per game in 2024-25, and that average could go up if Chet Holmgren is able to remain healthy after logging just 32 appearances in second NBA season. Then there’s the defense, which was the best in the NBA (in defensive rating) last season.

OKC boasted the NBA’s third best scoring defense last year and gave up just 107.6 points per game -- only the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic were better. SGA and Cason Wallace cracked the top five in steals per game in 2024-25 and Holmgren remains one of the league’s premier rim protectors. Everyone else is playing catchup, as no other team in either conference is this well-rounded ahead of the 2025-26 season.

Denver Nuggets

The Thunder should be favored to win the West, but the Nuggets might be severely underrated here. Denver forced OKC to seven games in the Western Conference semifinals last year and can still depend on Nikola Jokic, who many still believe is the best basketball player in the world.

Jokic posted career highs in points per game (29.6), three-point percentage (41.7), assists per game (10.2) and steals per game (1.8) last season. Denver ranked third in points per game (120.8) under his leadership and added depth could improve the team’s performance in 2025-26.

The Nuggets swapped Michael Porter Jr. for another stretch forward in Cam Johnson over the offseason. Johnson averaged a career-high 18.8 points per game with the Nets last season while shooting 39.0 percent from deep and is largely considered to be a better team and individual defender than Porter. That’s massive, as Porter’s ineptitude as a defender contributed to Denver’s bottom-10 defense last season.

The Nuggets also brought back two-way utility wing Bruce Brown from their last successful title run alongside Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas. Those moves could be huge and help push Denver past the OKC in its next playoff matchup against the favorites.

Los Angeles Lakers 

The Lakers pulled off a massive in-season trade to secure their future last season by sending away Anthony Davis to acquire Luka Doncic. Los Angeles ultimately lost to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of the playoffs following that move but have since doubled down on adding talent to alleviate the pressure on 40-year-old LeBron James.

The Lakers nabbed Deandre Ayton and Marcus Smart on the buyout market to improve their frontcourt depth and add some much-needed perimeter defense. Both players struggled with health issues last season, but can be difference makers when on the court in secondary or tertiary roles.

James might have to be the driving force behind everything Los Angeles executes during the regular season. Adding personnel to help him take a load off could make a huge difference in the long run. It likely won’t be enough of a difference to beat out the two aforementioned teams, though.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets pulled off an impressive blockbuster trade to send Jalen Green to the Phoenix Suns in a deal that brought back Kevin Durant over the offseason, but injuries are already affecting their upside in 2025-26.

Fred VanVleet is set to miss all of the upcoming season with a torn ACL and the point guard’s absence will hurt Houston’s potential after it finished second in the Western Conference last year. The Rockets’ guard depth is very questionable without him.

Reed Sheppard averaged more than 30.0 points per game in the G League last season but posted just 4.4 points per game in the NBA as a lottery pick from the 2024 draft. He’ll have to develop quite a bit to be part of a starting backcourt for a team with championship aspirations. VanVleet’s injury will accelerate that process.

Amen Thompson helped spearhead Houston’s borderline top-five defense last season. He’ll work with versatile big man Alperen Sengun and Durant to form Houston’s core three while Steven Adams, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr. and Dorian Finney-Smith provide support off the pine. Thompson can boost Houston’s odds if he blossoms into his team’s primary ball handler and facilitator while maintaining his significant defensive responsibilities.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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