Falcons Win Total Projection for 2025 (Another Losing Season on Horizon for Atlanta, Michael Penix Jr.?)

The Atlanta Falcons have had a winning season since 2017. That was the last time they made the playoffs, which resulted in a loss in the divisional round.

Since the days of Matt Ryan’s prime, the Falcons have undergone several coaching changes and a search for a future franchise quarterback. They believe they now have that now with Michael Penix Jr., who took over under center for veteran Kirk Cousins down the stretch last season.

The 2024 first-round pick underwent a learning curve in the five games he appeared, throwing three touchdowns and as many picks with 155 yards per game.

Atlanta hung around the playoff mix until the last minute and finished 8-9 and second in the NFC South last year — a step in the right direction from the three straight years of 7-10.

Head coach Raheem Morris will look to run it back in his second season with the headset in Atlanta. Let’s take a look at how their win total is priced heading into training camp.

Atlanta Falcons 2025 Win Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Over 7.5 (-130)
Under 7.5 (+110)

Falcons Challenged to Reach Eight Wins Again With Penix Jr.

The Falcons head into 2025 with a bold — and potentially costly — decision looming over their season: the demotion of Kirk Cousins in favor of young Penix Jr. Despite leading the Falcons to a 6-3 start in 2024 and accounting for seven wins overall, Cousins was relegated to a backup role while still commanding a $30 million cap hit. That price tag not only hamstrung Atlanta's flexibility in free agency, but also raises questions about the team's roster construction and strategic direction.

Penix, while promising, is being asked to exceed the performance of a proven veteran in his first year as a full-time NFL starter—a tall order that could derail the team’s chances of contending.

Atlanta’s offseason additions, including defenders Leonard Floyd, Divine Deablo, and Morgan Fox, brought some talent to the defense, but they don’t fully offset the losses of key veterans like Grady Jarrett and center Drew Dalman — two integral interior anchors.

The team had a solid draft, headlined by edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., and added depth in the secondary with Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman Jr. Still, relying heavily on rookie contributions—especially at quarterback—presents a steep learning curve. At a win total of 7.5 (with the under offering plus money), the Falcons are clearly viewed as a fringe team this season.

Even in a weakened NFC South, Atlanta faces an uphill climb to overtake four-time division champion Tampa Bay. The Falcons sit at +220 at FanDuel to win the division, but they’d need a near-perfect campaign from Penix and a step up from their young defense to truly compete. Oddsmakers are skeptical: Atlanta is +6500 at FanDuel to win the Super Bowl and a +142 underdog to make the playoffs.

Barring an unexpected breakout from Penix, 2025 feels like a transitional year—one where the Falcons may fall short while grooming their future under center.

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