Farmers Insurance Open Picks, Props Predictions: Betting Hideki Matsuyama, JJ Spaun and Will Zalatoris

LIV defector Brooks Koepka returns to the PGA Tour at iconic Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open and, yes, the SI Golf Panel has a bet on him!

The Farmers has produced back-to-back longshot winners. Harris English won at +10000 last year and Matthieu Pavon was +15000 in 2024. That’s atypically. Historically, players with shorter odds and histories of success at this course, like Tiger Woods, Justin Rose, Jon Rahm and Max Homa, win. We'll see how this year plays out.

The SI Golf Betting panel includes SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

Byron kept his hot start to the season rolling, chopping S.H. Kim first-round lead at +5000. He’s up over 11 units early on the season. Brad hit is prop last week and Iain hit his at the Sony. The rest of us are looking for our first wins.

Last year was a bit of an apparition as extremely windy conditions mixed with firm greens to create one of the toughest challenges of the entire season. English won at -8, which was the highest score to par to win since 2016. I expect the winning score to be much lower this year. I also think the cream will rise to the top, though we all have longshots worth considering.

Let’s get into the picks from the panel with breakdowns on each below the bets.

Farmers Betting Picks | Sports Illustrated

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Hideki Matsuyama +3000 (Bet365)

Don’t forget that Hideki Matsuyama won the Hero World Challenge in December and followed it up with a T13 finish at the Sony Open two weeks ago. Matsuyama is a perfect course fit at Torrey Pines with his great play off-the-tee and long irons. He has finished 13th or better in three of his last four starts at Torrey Pines.

Brian Kirschner: J.J. Spaun +3000 (BetMGM)

I understand people might think J.J. peaked last year, but I am a bit confused by this number. Spaun is above average in distance and accuracy, a supreme iron player and comfortable on Poa greens. He also showed the world he can win in the most difficult conditions at Oakmont last year. 30/1 feels like a great number this week considering who he is priced around.

Brad Thomas: Keegan Bradley +4500 (Bet365)

Given his history around this place, the price on Keegan Bradley feels enormous. He owns three top-five finishes here, including a runner-up in 2023. While he’s not the longest in the field, he’s long enough and surprisingly accurate. He also tends to show up on hard, longer courses, and he brings far more win equity than most of the names sitting in the 50s on the board.

Byron Lindeque:John Michael Spaun Jr. +3000 (BetMGM)

I use his full name because the disrespect on this number for the world No. 7 must be punished! I am not sure if oddsmakers just forgot the U.S. Open champion was also two playoffs away from being the PLAYERS Champion as well as the FedEx St. Jude winner, but Patrick Cantlay and Si Woo Kim being priced ahead of him while both looking for their first win in over three years just feels wrong. His T4 at the Hero in December resulted in the 155th best tee-to-green performance since 2004 (+14.92) and so long as he remains priced like this, I will be betting him every week hoping for the putter to spike like it did at Oakmont. He also finished 15th here last year without gaining any strokes putting. It really is only a matter of time until he wins another golf tournament and I couldn’t be more bullish on a golfer for 2026!

Cody Williams: Will Zalatoris +4800 (DraftKings)

Zalatoris WD’d from the Farmers before Round 1 last year, which started the unfortunate theme of him dealing with injuries all year. But let’s not forget, he was 22/1 before that happened, and it’s not hard to see why given he has three Top 13 finishes in his last four starts at Torrey. After gaining more than 4.0 strokes tee-to-green and 2+ with the putter last week, there is real value at this number with the upside of Willy Z — especially given that this should be a tighter, tougher event, where we’ve seen Zalatoris historically thrive.

Brian Giuffra: Will Zalatoris +4800 (DraftKings)

I love what I’ve seen from Willy Z in his return from injury. In two events, he’s gained over one stroke per round on approach and has also gained OTT and ARG. Historically, he’s solid in bogey avoidance and on longer approach shots too. These are all critical stats at Torrey. He was T24 here at the Genesis last year and, at the Farmers, was T13 in 2024, second in 2022 and T7 in 2021. Perhaps I’m a bit early here. Perhaps backing a guy with one win that came in 2022 isn't wise. But I think these are solid odds for someone with great history at this event and course.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Austin Smotherman +25000 (Caesars)

Smotherman finished T8 at last week’s American Express while leading the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green amongst all players who played the Stadium Course twice. If he can carry that level of ball striking to Torrey Pines, he’s going to have a shot to compete. He finished T11 at this event back in 2022.

Brian Kirschner: Hoatong Li +9600 (DraftKings)

Look, did I ever expect to bet Hoatong Li at the Farmers? No. But I can’t pass up nearly 100/1. This is a golfer who played in the final group of the last major in 2025. He also hit the ball incredibly well last week at the AmEx en route to a T8 finish, gaining over 4 strokes on approach and 3 strokes off the tee.

Brad Thomas: Aldrich Potgieter +15000 (Bet365)

Aldrich Potgieter entered last year’s final round at Farmers in solo third, just two shots off the lead. Then came the blow up, a 6-over 78 that knocked him out of contention. The talent is obvious, though. His power off the tee makes him dangerous on this layout, and if the rumors are true about the rough being shortened, I like him even more. Long drives and elite clubhead speed are a great recipe for success here.

Byron Lindeque: Aldrich Potgieter+15000 (BetMGM)

The shotlink strike on the North Course last year did my fellow South African dirty, as he gained +5.25 strokes off the tee around Torrey Pines South. That would have been good enough for +7 strokes driving, which would have been the 150th best ever driving performance since 2004. Data nerds like myself will tell you that driving is the most repeatable and reliable strokes gained metric because your ball begins the shot from a perfect lie that is exactly the same as everybody else. Aldrich entered Sunday in the final group last year and his young spirit got the better of him. But, he has since won the Rocket Mortgage in a three-way playoff, so he now knows how to win. I fully expect him to do so this week.

Cody Williams: Sami Valimaki +18000 (DraftKings)

Call me stubborn if you want, but I’m going back to the well with Sami Valimaki, despite missing the cut last week at the AmEx. Though he lacks the prerequisite of Driving Distance (112nd in the field), he’s the second-best in the field on approach from 200-225 yards out and first in SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds among players with more than four measured rounds (he’s second if you remove the qualifier). There’s history to fall back on too, as he finished T15 at the Farmers last year despite losing strokes on approach. With his his ball-striking spiking right now, 180/1 looks juicy.

Brian Giuffra: Justin Rose +6000 (BetMGM)

Rose either wins/competes in this tournament, or misses the cut. There is no in-between. He won in 2019, was Top 10 in 2022, 2018 and 2017 and T18 in 2023. He missed the cut at Torrey twice last year (Farmers + Genesis), missed the cut at the 2021 U.S. Open here and the 2020 Farmers. Coming off a missed cut at the AmEx, I expect Rose to be sharper and contend on a course he likes. Before the missed cut, he was T14 at the DP Championship and sixth at the Hero.

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Will Zalatoris Top 20 +240 (FanDuel)

Will Zalatoris is on record that his favorite course on the PGA Tour is Torrey Pines, which he proved with a T7 finish here in 2021 and a runner-up finish in 2022. Now that he’s back to being healthy, this week might be the time to bet on him in some capacity. His T18 finish at last week’s event proves that he’s ready to be competitive again.

Brian Kirschner: Taylor Pendrith Over Si Woo Kim +110 (DraftKings)

I think Si Woo is in for an emotional letdown after playing in the final group with Scottie last week. I trust Pendrith's distance much more on this course over Si Woo’s. Pendy has been more consistent on this course with a few top 20s and I think of Si Woo as a more volatile player. I will gladly take the plus money here.

Brad Thomas: Cam Young Top 20 +135 (FanDuel)

This price feels short for a golfer whose game looks tailor-made for this golf course. Surprisingly, the course history isn’t great on paper, with a missed cut in 2021 and a T20 in 2022. But both trips came with rough weeks on the greens, losing -0.7 strokes putting in 2021 and -2.3 in 2022. I can forgive what happened four years ago. He’s a much different player now. More importantly, the putter had been trending in the right direction, gaining strokes in six straight events before a small step back at the Hero World Challenge.

Byron Lindeque: Taylor Pendrith Top 20 +175 (BetMGM)

If you bet $100 on Taylor Pendrith to finish Top 20 at the Farmers every time he teed it up, you would have returned $318, which is the third-best bet in this field behind a Finau Top 10 and a Hossler Top 20. The cool Canadian will be looking for his fourth top 20 in five Farmers starts, and it makes total sense given his Micro Model ranks of 17th in driving distance and 15th in green in regulation rates. That level of ball striking is all we need to secure a Top 20 here.

Cody Williams: Pierceson Coody Top 20 incl. ties +225 (BetMGM)

I might be the first person to ever write this sentence, but we might be on the cusp of a big Pierceson Coody season. He’s started off 2026 with a Top 20 at both the Sony and the AmEx, and the numbers are painting a great picture for Coody coming into Torrey. He’s Top 40 in SG: Approach, but fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 36 rounds, while also ranking sixth and Driving Distance and eighth in SG: Around-the-Green. Oh, don’t forget, he’s also second in SG: Putting on Poa. Because the pedigree isn’t elite, I’m playing it a tad safe with Coody, but he looks live for a third straight Top 20 showing.

Brian Giuffra: Brooks Koepka To Make Cut -135 (BetMGM)

Koepka has always played better when he has something to prove. Well, it’s time to prove his pivot from LIV back to the PGA Tour was a smart one. He finished 2025 with a fourth and T15 at two DP Tour events and finished T4 when the U.S. Open was at Torrey in 2021. It’s not a sexy plus-money pick, but I do think it’s a smart one.

Winning Score Prediction

Iain MacMillan: -11
Brian Kirschner: -14
Brad Thomas: -14
Byron Lindeque: -17
Cody Williams: -10
Brian Giuffra: -13

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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