First to Forde: Best Picks Against the Spread For College Football Playoff Semifinal

Iain MacMillan | 19 Hours Ago

Against the Spread Picks for College Football Playoff Semifinal / Sports Illustrated

Congratulations to Pat Forde for winning the 2025 edition of First to Forde! He needed just one win in the quarterfinals to seal the deal against Iain MacMillan and he got exactly that when Indiana covered against Alabama.

The competition may be over, but with just three games left in the college football season, the competitors have agreed to give out their remaining spread picks, starting with this week's semifinal action.

All odds listed are via Caesars Sportsbook

Pat's College Football Playoff Semifinal Picks

Miami -3.5 vs. Ole Miss

Rebels QB Trinidad Chambliss was a magician against Georgia, but the Miami defensive line is a different animal. I also like the way Carson Beck managed the game against Ohio State.

Indiana -3.5 vs. Oregon

Rematches have gone the way of the team that lost the first meeting, but Indiana breaks all trends. I’m going with the most error-proof team in college football.

Iain's College Football Playoff Semifinal Picks

Ole Miss +3.5 vs. Miami

Miami ranks outside the top 15 in both opponent EPA per dropback and opponent dropback success rate, which could lead to yet another strong performance by Trinidad Chambliss, the Ole Miss quarterback. There are a lot of unknowns in this game, but it's clear at this point that we shouldn't discount Ole Miss just because of its coaching situation. I'll take the points with the Rebels in this one.

Oregon +3.5 vs. Indiana

I've been very high on this Oregon team throughout the season. No one has really taken them as a legitimate national championship contender, but I think the Ducks are very much live as underdogs in this matchup. The Ducks are third in the country in adjusted net EPA per play, one spot ahead of Indiana, which ranks fourth. Their defense, which allows the third fewest yards per pass attempt at 5.3, is good enough alone to keep this game within the spread.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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