Francesco Maestrelli vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction, Odds for Australian Open Round 2

World No. 4 Novak Djokovic is looking to build on his impressive history at the Australian Open on Wednesday, as he’ll take on 23-year-old Francesco Maestrelli in the second round.

Maestrelli had a thrilling first round win in five sets, coming back from a 2-1 deficit to beat Terence Atmane. He won the final two sets 6-1, 6-1 – a major accomplishment for the youngster in his first Grand Slam event.

Now, he has to face a 10-time Australian Open champion, so the path gets much, much harder going forward.

Djokovic last won at Melbourne Park in 2023, and he has been bounced in the semifinals in each of the last two years. After four semifinal losses in the Grand Slams in 2025, can the Serbian finally make his way back into a final in 2026?

He’s heavily favored to advance to the third round on Wednesday, so let’s take a look at the odds, each player’s path to this spot and my prediction.

Francesco Maestrelli vs. Novak Djokovic Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Moneyline

Francesco Maestrelli: +2600
Novak Djokovic: -5800

Total

28.5 (Over -130/Under -110)

Francesco Maestrelli vs. Novak Djokovic How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Jan. 21
Time: TBA
How to Watch (TV): ESPN+

Francesco Maestrelli vs. Novak Djokovic: History and How They Got Here

Francesco Maestrelli

This is the time Maestrelli is competing in a Grand Slam event, and he already has a win under his belt, knocking off Atmane 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 6-1, 6-1 in the first round.

He and Djokovic have obviously never faced off, but the Italian showed some serious poise in his first action at Melbourne Park, and he only dropped one set during qualifiers. If the 23-year-old pulls off the upset, it may be the biggest of the tournament.

Novak Djokovic

Djokovic’s history at Melbourne Park is unmatched.

He’s won 10 times, including four wins in as many appearances from 2019 to 2023. While he hasn’t made a final since that win in 2023, he also has at least made the semis in six consecutive appearances. Djokovic does have a second-round exit (back in 2017) on his resume at the Australian Open, but he looked elite in the first round, winning 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 against Pedro Martinez.

Francesco Maestrelli vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction and Pick

Djokovic only needed 25 games to advance to the second round at Melbourne Park, and he’s favored to win this match in straight sets (-330).

Maestrelli is a nice story – and had a nice win in the first round – but oddsmakers have set him at +210 to even win a set in this Round 2 matchup.

While there is zero value in betting on Djokovic to win or to win in straight sets, I do like the UNDER in total games in this match.

The Serbian made quick work of Martinez in the first round, and he’s dominated at the Australian Open in recent years, even though he’s aged. Maestrelli may be in over his head in this matchup, especially since he struggled early on with Atmane before taking over the match in the fourth set.

I don’t think he’ll see a fourth set against Djokovic, making the UNDER a great bet on Wednesday.

Pick: UNDER 28.5 Games (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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