Genesis Invitational Picks, Props Predictions: Betting Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick and Rory McIlroy

Another week, another heartbreaking near miss for the SI Golf betting panel.

Yours truly missed out on Sepp Straka +6300 at Pebble by a stroke a week after SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan lost Hideki Matsuyama (+2700) in a playoff at the Phoenix Open. I hit Justin Rose +6000 at Farmers three weeks ago, so we’re on a 2-2-1 run, which bodes well heading into another big event.

The Genesis Invitational at Riviera, hosted by Tiger Woods, is always one of the most highly-anticpated events on Tour. This is the second consectuive signature event. Scottie Scheffler (+300) and Rory McIlroy (+1100) are both big favorites at FanDuel. Surprisingly, no one on this panel is on Scheffler.

The SI Golf Betting panel includes SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and me, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

This is a shotmakers paradise where the ability to take advantage of the three Par 5s is critical to success. Jon Rahm, Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson all won here in the past. Matsuyama added his name to that list last year.

What do they all have in common? They also won at Augusta. When handicapping, that’s a great comp course.

Let’s get into our picks for this week’s event and hope we can hit another outright after some recent near misses.

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Matt Fitzpatrick +3700 (DraftKings)

Matt Fitzpatrick was third in the field in strokes-gained approach last week, and now he’s second in the field in strokes-gained approach over the past three months. He’ll tee it up at an event this week where strong iron play is typically what leads a golfer to the winner's circle. He has a top-five finish at this event back in 2021, so things could all be lining up for him to be in contention in the final few holes on Sunday.

Brian Kirschner: Matt Fitzpatrick +3700 (DraftKings)

I am going back to Matt Fitzpatrick this week at Riviera, despite how frustrated I was with him last week. Fitz is playing some really good golf right now and the iron play is extremely well suited for this course. The Englishman gained over 8 strokes on approach and only lost ARG last week. I trust that he can putt a bit better and contend on a golf course he finished T5 at in 2021.

Brad Thomas: Tommy Fleetwood +2200 (DraftKings)

Tommy Fleetwood is a golfer to back at courses where accuracy off the tee matters, and you need to roll in your share of putts to contend. Riviera has rewarded length in the past, which is not exactly his strength, but it is still a place where finding fairways and converting on the greens correlates to success. Fleetwood has played well at Riviera and in the build-up to this event. He’s turning into a reliable golfer to back in the outright market.

Byron Lindeque: Tommy Fleetwood +2200 (DraftKings)

Fleetwood has finishes of 10th and 20th in his last two starts here and just notched a T4 at Pebble last week. His course fit at this venue ranks #2 in the Micro Model with all four strokes gained areas ranking top 15 or better. He is the best player in the field around the green and can turn a missed green into a birdie opportunity or a stress free par. His sawed off approach shots have him as the eighth best iron player in the field and is projected to hit the ninth most fairways this week, which could come in handy considering we could have a couple rounds with ball in hand given the decent amount of rain the area has received the last couple days. Tommy will be looking to take advantage of the cold, wet conditions that he grew up playing the game in.

Cody Williams: Rory McIlroy +1325 (DraftKings)

Rory finished T14 last week despite losing strokes off the tee and putting. Now he’s going to a rain-soaked Riviera — where he’s finished Top 10 in three of his last six starts — while ranking second in SG: Tee-to-Green and fifth in Total Driving over his last 24 rounds. This just feels like the perfect blend of course fit and conditions for McIlroy to showcase his talents and his lack of victories, I think, gives us some value at better than 13/1 odds.

Brian Giuffra: Maverick McNealy +4500 (Bet365)

The last time I bet Mav he had a classic Sunday meltdown, going from one-stroke off the lead to finishing five behind in Scotsdale. Still, I’m bullish on Mav this year and don’t want to miss his spike. He was second here last year (at Torrey, which is similar to Riviera) and T7 in 2022. He gained nearly four strokes on approach last week, but lost strokes putting, which is normally a strength. With his length off the tee, if he can spike on approach again and putt well, he should be in contention again on Sunday.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan Tom Hoge +22000 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge had a strong T14 finish at Pebble Beach last night, which includes gaining +1.50 strokes on the field per round with his approach play. Now, he returns to a course that he finished solo eighth at in 2024, and T14 in 2023. If his irons are dialed again this week, he has a chance to contend on the weekend.

Brian Kirschner Jason Day +6300 (DraftKings)

I have an idea in my head that after being very popular last week and not contending that Riviera will be Jason Day’s breakout in 2026. Day had two really good iron weeks at Farmers and AmEx and has always been a good poa putter. Day finished top 10 last time it was played at Riviera and I think its a really good spot for his short game to shine.

Brad Thomas Ryo Hisatsune +10000 (Bet365)

Ryo Hisatsune is worth another look this week. His approach play sucked over the weekend, but much of that came in the tough windy conditions, which makes it easier to give him a pass. He still flashed enough across the first three rounds to grab the 54-hole lead, and when a player keeps putting himself in the mix like that, I am comfortable staying on him until the run of contention is over

Byron Lindeque: Aldrich Potgieter Top 5 +5500 (Caesars)

A long shot that doesn’t have to win the tournament? Sign me up! Aldrich Potgieter gained 2.4 strokes ball striking in his single round on the South Course at Torrey Pines. A long course that favors distance and long iron execution. The young South African thrives in driver heavy, long-iron environments, with a win at the Rocket Mortgage, a playoff loss in Mexico, and played in the final group on Sunday at last year’s Farmers. If we want a good result on Kikyuya grass, he finished T2 at the Nedbank 14 months ago around Gary Player CC. Instead of focussing on form, we are going to focus on fit, which is formidable.

Cody Williams: Tony Finau +13500 (DraftKings)

Peek behind the curtain, I’m writing this after Giuffra already wrote up Finau, but I’m all on board. He’s been wildly inconsistent, specifically with his approach play and putting of late. But his history suggests that he might be more comfortable at Riv than any other place on the PGA Tour. Furthermore, 50% of approach shots come from 150-175 or 175-200 yards out, and Finau is Top 15 in SG: Approach from both of those distances over his last 24 rounds, while also being Top 25 in Total Driving. For a guy with his history, he’s way too much of a longshot this week to not take a nibble on.

Brian Giuffra: Tony Finau +13500 (DraftKings)

First of all, I see what Byron did up there and, while flouting the rules, I kinda like it. I’ve been saying all season longshots, to me, are anybody +6000 or longer. Finau doesn’t fit that bill, coming in at +1600 for a top 5. But I do think 135-1 is a bit too long for a player with his history at Riviera. Two runners-up plus three other top 20s here, Finau has shown he’s not D.O.A. this season, with a T11 at Farmers and 18th at Pebble. He’s a horses for courses player and Riv is definitely one he’s had success at. At this long of odds, it feels worth a sprinkle.

First-Round Leader

Iain MacMillan Sam Burns +3700 (DraftKings)

Sam Burns is tied for 10th on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average. He’s coming off a strong T6 finish at Pebble Beach and now he’ll compete at an event he’s been the first round leader at once before. He was leading after both the first, second, and third rounds in 2021 before failing to do enough to win on Sunday. He’s in good enough form to once again get off to a hot start at Riviera.

Brian Kirschner: Mav McNealy +4000 (DraftKings)

I dont know if he can win the event but I really think that he can contend and get out to an early lead. Mav is a California guy who should feel right at home this week. McNealy is coming off T29 last week where he gained almost four strokes on approach. He is a great Poa putter that should excel in these conditions.

Brad Thomas: Jake Knapp +3900 (DraftKings)

Jake Knapp has the second tee time out, which gives him a chance to post a number early and sit back and watch the rest of the field play on firmer conditions. Riviera might not be a perfect fit on paper, but when you are targeting the First Round Leader market, you want players who can go super low. Knapp has already shown he can do exactly that. The upside is there. So, Knapp's first-round lead is live.

Byron Lindeque Ben Griffin +4500 (BetMGM)

Benjamin better button it up this year because a Sony Open T19 should not be the best result on his 2026 resume so far. However, what he has been up to on Thursdays over the last twelve months still leaves us with an angle to attack the first-round leader market, gaining +2.7 strokes on average in his opening rounds. That is the fourth best R1 strokes gained in this field. Prior to stumbling around TPC Scottsdale and Pebble Beach, Ben has been gifting the R1 market with seven consecutive top eight finishes. We now get to a course where his stellar short game will be needed a little more as there will be a lot of mid to long irons into greens in the cold, wet conditions, allowing him to flex his superb long iron play too.

Cody Williams: Sahith Theegala +6600 (Bet365)

I don’t think Sahith currently has the approach play to win at a demanding place like Riviera. Having said that, he does have a T6 at the Genesis from 2023 and is a Top 10 player in the field in SG: Putting on Poa over the last 24 rounds under such parameters. Furthermore, he’s also sixth in Par 5 scoring and eighth in SG: Around-the Green over the last 24 rounds. If he can find his ball-striking for one round, he’s more than talented enough to find himself in the lead after 18 holes, even if I don’t see it over 72 holes.

Brian Giuffra: Justin Rose +3900 (DraftKings)

When I hit on Rose outright, I missed him as FRL. That was foolish considering his history as a FRL HOFer. Surprisingly, Rose has not had a ton of success at Riv, missing the cut here in 2023 and T56 in 2020. He was T4 in 2017 however, and has success at comp courses -- remember, he was FRL at Augusta last year. I believe this is a fair number for a guy who spikes on approach and with the putter regularly.

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Jake Knapp Top 20 +106 (DraftKings)

Jake Knapp is second on the PGA Tour over the past three months in total strokes gained, behind only Scottie Scheffler. He has finishes of T11, T5, solo eighth, and T8 to start the 2026 season, so I have no doubt he can continue that level of play this week. The former UCLA Bruin should feel at home at Riviera.

Brian Kirschner: Shane Lowry Top 20 +188 (DraftKings)

Lowry’s iron play has been exceptional as of late and I think this is a really good course for the Irishman. Coming off a T8 finish at Pebble Beach in his first start on the PGA Tour in 2026, I really like him to continue to play well this week. Lowry gained over four strokes on approach and with the putter. He has also finished T14 here in 2023.

Brad Thomas: Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 -125 (FanDuel)

Fleetwood has been nothing but consistent in the placement markets. He ended last season with four straight top 20s and continued that success overseas. Riviera is the perfect setup for him. Expect his success to continue.

Byron Lindeque: Tony Finau Top 20 +360 (FanDuel)

Tony Finau has cashed this bet in five of his last seven Genesis Invitationals, including two runner up finishes. He also enters the week having finished top 20 in two of his three starts since switching to the Ally Blue Onset Ping putter, which saw him lead the field in putting last week. Yes, you read that right. We already know the steady ball striking Finau finds at long venues, but now that he has a putter that isn’t reducing his total strokes each week, his floor appears to be significantly higher. He has gained on approach in eight straight Genesis Invitationals. The sky is the limit for Finau now!

Cody Williams: Cameron Young Top 10 w/ ties +275 (BetMGM)

Betting on Cameron Young to win is never fun. Betting on him to finish Top 10 when he has three starts and three Top 20s (including a tied runner-up finish in his 2022 debut), now that feels much better. Young’s ball-striking has been suspect over his last two starts, but he had been playing quite well on approach before that and is Top 21 in the key proximity ranges, while also having the length to combat the wet conditions this week. Honestly, not having to sweat out him trying to win is going to make this a far more comfortable bet than it otherwise would’ve been.

Brian Giuffra: Tony Finau Top 20 +360 (FanDuel)

This feels like a steal of a price for a guy with a lot of success here. He’s still shaky off the tee and around the greens, which could come back to bite me here, but if I think he’s good enough to win, I damn sure better think he’s good enough to finish in the Top 20.

Final score prediction

Iain MacMillan: -16
Brian Kirschner -17
Brad Thomas: -14
Byron Lindeque: -15
Cody Williams: -14
Brian Giuffra: -16

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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