Grizzlies vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, April 3

Are the Miami Heat making a playoff push?

Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo and company knocked off the Boston Celtics on Wednesday night, pushing their winning streak to six games ahead of Thursday’s clash with the struggling Memphis Grizzlies.

Memphis has fallen into the play-in tournament field in the Western Conference, losing four straight games and eight of its last 10. It’s been a wild fall from grace for the Grizzlies, who fired head coach Taylor Jenkins last Friday with just nine games left in the regular season.

Miami, which is now just 1.5 games out of the No. 7 seed in the East, is set as a home underdog in this matchup. Can bettors really trust Memphis to win and cover as a favorite?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Thursday’s contest.

Grizzlies vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Grizzlies -4.5 (-105)
Heat +4.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Grizzlies: -192
Heat: +160

Total

224.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Grizzlies vs. Heat How to Watch

Date: Thursday, April 3
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Kaseya Center
How to Watch (TV): TNT
Grizzlies record: 44-32
Heat record: 35-41

Grizzlies vs. Heat Injury Reports

Grizzlies Injury Report

Brandon Clarke – out
Vince Williams Jr. – out
Zyon Pullin – out

Heat Injury Report

Not submitted yet

Grizzlies vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bets

Memphis Grizzlies Best NBA Prop Bet

Jaren Jackson Jr. OVER 21.5 Points (-105)

The Grizzlies need All-Star forward Jaren Jackson to step up, as they’re just 2-8 since he returned from an injury. JJJ is averaging 20.5 points per game over that stretch, and he’s shooting a solid 46.6 percent from the field and 44.4 percent from 3 in those games.

After JJJ took 20 shots in his last matchup, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Grizzlies continue to look his way a ton against Miami. The All-Star has put up 22 or more points in four of his last six games, scoring at least 19 points in all of them.

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

Tyler Herro UNDER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (-175)

It’s impossible to trust Tyler Herro in a 3-point prop right now, as he’s shooting just 34.2 percent from beyond the arc since the All-Star break.

What’s even more concerning is Herro is attempting just 6.9 shots from deep per game over that stretch, despite the fact that he’s averaging 8.9 3-point attempts per game for the season.

Herro has four or more made 3s in just six of his 22 games since the break.

Grizzlies vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Grizzlies over the last two months, and they currently hold just the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference entering this matchup.

Memphis is in serious danger of ending up in the play-in tournament with a home game in the first matchup, but oddsmakers have it favored to snap a four-game skid tonight.

I’m not buying it.

Miami is coming off a massive win against the Celtics, and it is 8-6 against the spread as a home underdog in the 2024-25 season. While the Heat may not end up winning this game outright, I do love them to cover against a Memphis team that has slipped to 21st in the NBA in net rating over its last 10 games.

The Heat, on the other hand, have rebonded nicely after losing 10 games in a row in March. Erik Spoelstra’s group has won six in a row, and it’s suddenly just one game out of the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference.

There’s a lot to play for in Miami, as two shots at the No. 7 or No. 8 seed in the play-in tournament would be massive for this group versus landing in the No. 9 seed and having to win two games in a row.

Even with a new voice leading the way in Memphis, I like the Heat to at least cover on Thursday.

Pick: Heat +4.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $150 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.