Hawks vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, April 12

Jalen Johnson and the Atlanta Hawks can lock up the No. 5 seed in the East with a win on Sunday, but they’ve already clinched a top-six seed by winning the Southeast Division.

They’ll face a divisional opponent on Sunday, as the No. 10-seeded Miami Heat are looking to improve their play-in tournament spot on the final day of the regular season.

The current No. 10 seed, Miami could move up to the No. 9 spot with a win and a loss by the Charlotte Hornets (who face the New York Knicks on Sunday). Miami made the playoffs out of the No. 10 spot last season, but the path may be a little tougher in the 2025-26 season.

Atlanta could fall to the No. 6 spot with a loss and a Toronto Raptors win, so there’s an incentive for Quin Snyder’s team to close out the regular season strong.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds, a player prop target and my prediction for this regular-season finale.

Hawks vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Hawks +1.5 (-115)
Heat -1.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Hawks: –105
Heat: -115

Total

241.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Hawks vs. Heat How to Watch

Date: Sunday, April 12
Time: 6:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Kaseya Center
How to Watch (TV): FanDuel Sports Network (Local)
Hawks record: 46-35
Heat record: 42-39

Hawks vs. Heat Injury Reports

Hawks Injury Report

Nickeil Alexander-Walker – questionable
Dyson Daniels – questionable
Jalen Johnson – questionable
RayJ Dennis – questionable
Keshon Gilbert – questionable
Jonathan Kuminga – questionable
CJ McCollum – questionable
Jock Landale – out
Onyeka Okongwu – questionable

Heat Injury Report

Simone Fontecchio – probable
Tyler Herro – available
Nikola Jovic – out
Davion Mitchell – available
Norman Powell – questionable
Dru Smith – out
Andrew Wiggins – available

Hawks vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bets

Hawks Best NBA Prop Bet

Nickeil Alexander-Walker 4+ 3s Made (-113)

This season, Alexander-Walker is arguably the favorite to win the Most Improved Player award, putting up 20.8 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game while shooting 45.9 percent from the field and 39.9 percent from 3. If he plays on Sunday (he’s currently questionable), he’s certainly worth considering in the prop.

Alexander-Walker’s 3-point shooting has been extremely impressive since he’s taking 8.1 3-pointers per game. The former first-round pick has three or more made 3s in seven games in a row and nine of his last 10.

Plus, he’s two, three and four 3-pointers in his three games with the Heat, taking at least nine attempts in back-to-back games. NAW is worth a look against this Miami defense, as the Heat rank 22nd in opponent 3s per game and 16th in opponent 3-point percentage.

Hawks vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

There’s a chance that the Hawks completely punt this game since they’ve locked up a top-six seed, as they’ve decided to list several of their best players as questionable on Sunday.

Miami, on the other hand, has only Norman Powell listed as questionable out of its top weapons. Since the Heat could get a home game in the play-in with a win and a Charlotte loss, I expect Erik Spoelstra’s group to attempt to steal this game and hope the New York Knicks come through against the Hornets.

Miami is 10 games over .500 at home. The Hawks could end up playing all of their players, but if they don’t this line is extremely mispriced and could be a steal on Sunday.

Pick: Heat Moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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