Heat vs. Bucks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, Feb. 23

The Milwaukee Bucks have won three games in a row and are looking to make a push for a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference when they host the Miami Heat on Sunday night.

The Heat are coming off a win on Friday against the Toronto Raptors, but they’re still under .500 on the season and hold just the No. 8 seed in the East. Miami is hoping to make a push for a playoff spot in the post-Jimmy Butler era, but oddsmakers have it set as an underdog in this matchup.

As for the Bucks, they have won back-to-back games despite Giannis Antetokounmpo being on a minutes limit.

Can Milwaukee keep that rolling on Sunday?

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for this Eastern Conference battle.

Heat vs. Bucks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Heat +5 (-108)
Bucks -5 (-112)

Moneyline

Heat: +185
Bucks: -225

Total

221.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Heat vs. Bucks How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Feb. 23
Time: 6:00 PM ET
Venue: Fiserv Forum
How to Watch (TV):
Heat record: 26-28
Bucks record: 31-24

Heat vs. Bucks Injury Reports

Heat Injury Report

Josh Christopher – out
Tyler Herro – probable
Keshad Johnson – out
Kevin Love – out
Dru Smith – out
Isaiah Stevens – out

Bucks Injury Report

Giannis Antetokounmpo – probable
Damian Lillard – probable
Pat Connaughton – out
Bobby Portis – out
Taurean Prince – probable
Gary Trent Jr. – probable

Heat vs. Bucks Best NBA Prop Bets Today

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

Bam Adebayo OVER 17.5 Points (-120)

After a slow start to the 2024-25 season, Bam has been on fire as of late, scoring 18 or more points in nine consecutive games, averaging 22.7 points on 16.1 shots per game over that stretch.

The Heat big man has been much more aggressive and is shooting way better from the field (55.2 percent) and from 3 (37.9 percent) over this stretch than his season averages. Don’t be shocked if Bam picks up close to 20 points on Sunday night.

Milwaukee Bucks Best NBA Prop Bet

Damian Lillard OVER 24.5 Points (-110)

With Giannis dealing with a minutes limit since returning from his calf injury, Damian Lillard should be in line for a huge role on Sunday night.

Earlier this year, Dame dropped 29 points on 9-of-21 shooting against Miami, and the star guard has 25 or more points in three of his last five games, including 43 and 38-point games with Giannis out. While Giannis is going to play on Sunday barring a setback, I still think there is a path where Dame is the No. 1 option for the Bucks.

Heat vs. Bucks Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Bucks are the bet to make in this matchup:

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been on a minutes limit since returning from a calf injury after the All-Star break, but the Bucks are on a three-game winning streak after knocking off the Los Angeles Clippers and Washington Wizards out of the break.

Giannis (probable) and Damian Lillard (probable) are both expected to play in this game against a Miami Heat team that is under .500 against the spread as a road underdog. Miami went to overtime against the Toronto Raptors on Friday night, and it’s been pretty terrible as of late, ranking 21st in the NBA in net rating over its last 10 games.

As a home favorite this season, the Bucks are 11-11-1 against the spread and 16-7 straight up. The Heat, meanwhile, are just 7-8-1 against the spread and 6-10 straight up as road dogs.

Even with Giannis on a minutes limit, the Bucks should be able to win this game, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them cover given Miami’s recent struggles (4-6 in its last 10).

Pick: Bucks -5 (-112)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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