Heat vs. Cavaliers Playoff Odds: Series Prediction, Odds, Analysis and Best Bet

The No. 1-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers finally have their playoff opponent.

Cleveland will take on Erik Spoelstra’s Miami Heat in the first round after Miami became the first No. 10 seed to advance through the play-in tournament to make the playoffs. This is the third straight season that the Heat will be the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference, and they did make the NBA Finals out of that spot in the 2022-23 season.

However, Cleveland won 64 games during the regular season and was dominant at home (34-7), en route to the best record in the East. The Cavs, who finished the regular season with the best offensive rating in the NBA, are heavily favored to take this series.

In fact, oddsmakers have set “Cavs in 4” as the most likely outcome in the correct score odds for this first-round matchup.

While the Heat may be an eight seed, and finished well under .500 in the regular season, they do have a ton of experience on their roster and a great coaching staff. Can they make the Cavs sweat a little in round one?

Here’s a breakdown of the series odds, trends to watch for and my prediction for this Cavs-Heat matchup – which starts with Game 1 on Sunday night.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Heat vs. Cavaliers Series Odds

Miami: +900
Cleveland: -1800

Heat vs. Cavaliers Series Correct Score Odds

Cavs in 4: +165
Cavs in 5: +195
Cavs in 6: +475
Cavs in 7: +650
Heat in 7: +2200
Heat in 6: +2200
Heat in 5: +4500
Heat in 4: +6500

Heat vs. Cavaliers Trends to Watch

Miami Heat

Miami struggled during the regular season, losing 10 games in a row in March, but it closed out the campaign on a high note.

Miami finished fourth in the NBA in offensive rating and third in net rating over its final 10 games, a major step forward for Spoelstra’s group.

Plus, the Heat were still the No. 9 defense in the NBA for the entire season despite all of their struggles. Miami did blow a ton of leads, posting an NBA-high 21 losses in games where they held a double-digit advantage and blew an NBA-high 20 fourth-quarter leads in losses this season.

That’s going to make things tough against a Cavs team that has the most potent offense in the NBA (No. 1 in offensive rating) this season.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland has an elite offense (as I mentioned above), but it did struggle a bit on defense following the All-Star break, ranking 14th in the league in defensive rating over that stretch.

Still, this Cleveland team was dominant at home, and it sat players a lot over the final stretch of the season, which certainly contributed to some down performances. The Cavs also have one of the deepest teams in the NBA, featuring Sixth Man of the Year candidates De’Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome.

Overall, the Cavs have six players that are averaging at least 10 points per game. Plus, the Cavs’ four-man lineup with Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen had an insane +9.8 net rating during the regular season.

Heat vs. Cavaliers Prediction and Pick

I have a lot of respect for this Miami team and Spoelstra, and I actually think they match up pretty well with the Cavs.

Miami has the ability to play two-big lineups, and it finished the regular season with the No. 9 defense in the league – which isn’t something to scoff out.

Now, Cleveland is a way better offensive team, but there is a positive trend for Miami (as I mentioned earlier). It finished No. 4 in the league in offensive rating over the final 10 games of the regular season.

This isn’t to say that the Heat are going to pull off the upset, but if they won a game or two in this series, I wouldn’t be shocked.

Ultimately, the Cavs have too much depth (six players averaging double figures), for this Miami team to keep up. Herro is arguably the fifth-best player in this series (Mitchell, Mobley, Garland, Bam all could be over him), yet he’s the player Miami relies on to lead this offense night in and night out. That’s a major ask against a Cavs team that will likely throw any coverage it can at home in this series.

Cleveland was also too good at home (34-7), for Miami to complete the upset. But, I do think the Heat will steal a couple games.

Pick: Cavs to win the series, Cavs in 6 (+475 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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