Heat vs. Cavaliers Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 1

The Cleveland Cavaliers were the best team in the Eastern Conference all season long, getting off to an insanely hot start and winning 64 total games in the regular season.

Their reward? A matchup with the No. 8-seeded Miami Heat, who became the first team in NBA history to go from the No. 10 spot in the play-in tournament to earning the No. 8 seed.

Miami knocked off the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday before winning in overtime against the Atlanta Hawks on Friday night. Tyler Herro was magnificent in both games, and he’s now aiming to lead Miami to an upset in the first round.

Cleveland is massively favored in Game 1 and in the series – and rightfully so. The Cavs finished the regular season with the No. 3 net rating in the league.

However, just two seasons ago, Miami advanced to the NBA Finals as the No. 8 seed in the East. So, Erik Spoelstra’s group is going to be a tough out in the first round.

Here’s a look at the odds for Game 1, some player props to bet and my prediction.

Heat vs. Cavaliers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Heat +12 (-110)
Cavs -12 (-110)

Moneyline

Heat: +490
Cavs: -675

Total

215 (Over -108/Under -112)

Heat vs. Cavaliers How to Watch

Date: Sunday, April 20
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Rocket Arena
How to Watch (TV): TNT
Heat record: 37-45
Cavs record: 64-18

Heat vs. Cavaliers Injury Reports

Heat Injury Report

Alec Burks – available
Pelle Larsson – available
Duncan Robinson – available
Kevin Love – out
Nikola Jovic – available
Haywood Highsmith – available

Cavs Injury Report

None to report

Heat vs. Cavaliers Best NBA Prop Bets

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

Bam Adebayo OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-130)

Miami big man Bam Adebayo had two huge play-in tournament performances, grabbing 12 and 11 rebounds to help Miami become the first 10 seed in NBA history to advance through the play-in to make the playoffs.

This season, Adebayo had at least nine boards in every game against the Cavs, picking up 12 and 13 rebounds in two of the three times he faced them. Overall, he averaged 9.6 rebounds per game in the regular season.

I expect Adebayo to play heavy minutes on Sunday for a Heat team that is riding high after finishing the regular season with one of the best net ratings in the NBA over its final 10 games.

Since the Cavs play big with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bam and Kel’el Ware play a lot together to combat that lineup.

In his playoff career, Adeabyo averages 9.1 boards per game. Given his success against Clevelan, Bam is worth a shot in this market.

Cleveland Cavaliers Best NBA Prop Bet

Evan Mobley OVER 16.5 Points (-125)

If the Cavs want to make a deep run in the playoffs this season, Mobley is going to have to be one of the driving forces for this offense.

After a breakout showing in the playoffs last season, Mobley averaged a career-high 18.5 points per game in the 2024-25 regular season. Not only that, but the Cavs forward had 16 and 22 points in his two meetings against Miami where he was able to finish the game.

Mobley should have a big role on offense against a Miami team that likes to play two bigs in Adebayo and Ware. I’m buying him to clear this line on Sunday.

Heat vs. Cavaliers Prediction and Pick

This is a tough turnaround on short rest, but Miami is rolling right now, and it didn’t just start in the play-in tournament.

The Heat finished the regular season with the No. 3 net rating in the NBA over their last 10 games, showing a huge improvement on offense (No. 4 in offensive rating) after ranking in the bottom 10 in the league for most of the season.

Miami went through a ton of turmoil with the Jimmy Butler saga, but Spoelstra’s team has peaked at the right time heading into Game 1.

The Cavs did a solid job as home favorites in the regular season, going 22-17-1 against the spread. However, this isn’t exactly an ideal matchup against a team with a ton of playoff experience.

Cleveland is heavily favored, but the Heat love to slow things down and finished the regular season with the No. 9 defensive rating in the league.

As good as the Cavs have been this season, they have players that opponents can pick on when it comes to switches on the defensive end. Cleveland will likely win this game, but I think this spread is a little too much.

I’ll back the Heat to stay hot and cover on the road in Game 1.

Pick: Heat +12 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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