Heat vs. Raptors Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Friday, Feb. 21

The Raptors are an impressive 16-8-1 against the spread as home underdogs this season.

The Raptors are an impressive 16-8-1 against the spread as home underdogs this season. / Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

The Miami Heat entered the All-Star break on a four-game losing streak, and they’re just 0.5 games ahead of the Atlanta Hawks for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference entering Friday night’s contest with the Toronto Raptors. 

Miami is favored in this matchup, but it has really struggled over its last 10 games, ranking 22nd in the league in net rating and 27th in offensive rating.

The Raptors, who are 21 games under .500, lost six of their last 10 before the All-Star break, and they are bound for the lottery in the 2025 NBA Draft. While Toronto has an outside shot at the No. 10 seed in the East, it may not want to get there anyway since this team isn’t exactly equipped to win now.

Plus, trade deadline acquisition Brandon Ingram is still out of the lineup due to an ankle injury.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Friday’s contest. 

Heat vs. Raptors Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Heat -3 (-108)
• Raptors +3 (-112)

Moneyline

• Heat: -148
• Raptors: +124

Total

• 218.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Heat vs. Raptors How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Feb. 21
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena
• How to Watch (TV): TSN, Bally Sports Sun
• Heat record: 25-28
• Raptors record: 17-38

Heat vs. Raptors Injury Reports

Heat Injury Report

• Tyler Herro – probable
• Josh Christopher – out
• Dru Smith – out
• Kevin Love – out
• Keshad Johnson – out
• Isaiah Stevens – out

Raptors Injury Report

• Ulrich Chomche – out
• Brandon Ingram – out
• AJ Lawson – out
• Jakob Poeltl – out
• PJ Tucker – out

Heat vs. Raptors Best NBA Prop Bets 

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

• Tyler Herro OVER 22.5 Points (-110)

This is a great matchup for Tyler Herro, as the All-Star guard has scored 23, 23 and 31 points in his three meetings with the Raptors in the 2024-25 campaign.

Before the All-Star break, Herro had a smooth 40 points in Miami’s loss to Dallas, and he’s clearly the No. 1 scoring option with Jimmy Butler now in Golden State.

Herro enters this game averaging 23.9 points per game while shooting 46.5 percent from the field and 38.0 percent from beyond the arc. Since Toronto is just 26th in the NBA in defensive rating this season, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Herro turn in yet another big scoring game on Friday. 

Toronto Raptors Best NBA Prop Bet

• Gradey Dick OVER 12.5 Points (-105)

It’s been an up-and-down season for second-year wing Gradey Dick, but he’s averaging 15.0 points per game and still has a pretty big role in this offense. With Ingram still out, Dick should be able to clear 12.5 points on Friday night.

Over his last eight games (since Jan. 31), Dick has 13 or more points in six games, averaging 11.8 points per game over that stretch. His lows are low – he had a game with zero points and another with two – but this prop number has dipped too far for a player that is still averaging 12.4 shot attempts per game. 

Heat vs. Raptors Prediction and Pick

There are two trends that I just can’t look past when it comes to this matchup:

• The Raptors are 16-8-1 against the spread as home underdogs
• The Heat are 3-10 against the spread as road favorites

Miami has the third-worst record of any team in the NBA as a road favorite this season, and as I mentioned earlier, it’s in the bottom 10 in the league in net rating over its last 10 games. 

In the three matchups between these teams this season, we’ve seen Miami pick up a pair of wins (by 10 in each game) at home while the Raptors won by three in their lone home game. 

Toronto is starting to get healthier, and it’s no coincidence that has allowed it to move up to 16th in the NBA in net rating over its last 15 games.

I’ll take the points on Friday night. 

Pick: Raptors +3 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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