Heat vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, Jan. 11

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Miami Heat-Oklahoma City Thunder matchup on Sunday.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a solid prop target on Sunday. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Oklahoma City Thunder are massive favorites at home on Sunday against a Miami Heat team that is coming off a terrible loss on Saturday.

Miami was blown out by the Indiana Pacers – the worst team in the Eastern Conference – and now it has a quick turnaround against the best team in the NBA that is 18-2 overall at home.

Not ideal.

The Thunder have been shaky since they started the season 24-1, but they could be in a good spot to cover with only Isaiah Hartenstein listed as out for this game. Meanwhile, Miami may look to rest some players on the second night of a back-to-back, especially since guard Tyler Herro has dealt with injuries issues in the 2025-26 season.

Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for Sunday’s contest. 

Heat vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Heat +13.5 (-105)
• Thunder -13.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Heat: +575
• Thunder: -850

Total

• 233.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Heat vs. Thunder How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Jan. 11
• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Paycom Center
• How to Watch (TV): FanDuel Sports Network (Local)
• Heat record: 20-18
• Thunder record: 32-7

Heat vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Heat Injury Report

• Not submitted yet

Thunder Injury Report

• Nikola Topic – out
• Isaiah Hartenstein – out
• Thomas Sorber – out

Heat vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-173)

SGA is shooting 39.8 percent from 3 this season, and he’s taking on a Miami team that ranks in the bottom 10 in the league in 3-pointers allowed per game.

The Heat play at a fast pace, which means there are going to be a ton of possessions for this Thunder offense, and I’m buying SGA, who is taking 5.0 3s per game this season.

He’s made at least two shots from deep in 22 of 37 games. 

Heat vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

The Thunder are an elite home team this season, going 18-2 overall, and they have a great matchup against the Heat on Sunday.

Miami was blown out by the Pacers – who have the worst record in the NBA – on Saturday, and now they have a quick turnaround against the No. 1 team in the NBA.

The Heat are struggling on the road, going 7-12 straight up, and they’re just 5-5 in their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Thunder have posted an average scoring margin of +14.9 points per game as a home favorite, covering in 11 of 20 games despite constantly being favored by double digits.

With OKC getting healthier – only Isaiah Hartenstein is out for this game amongst their rotation pieces – I think it runs away with this one after Miami looked awful on the road on Saturday. 

Pick: Thunder -13.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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