Hornets vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, March 23

Things can’t get much worse for the Miami Heat, as they’ve dropped to the No. 10 seed in the Eastern Conference and have lost 10 games in a row heading into Sunday’s matchup against the Charlotte Hornets.

The Heat lost to the Hornets – at home – by three points back on March 10, but oddsmakers still have them favored on Sunday. That’s interesting, especially since Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are questionable for Miami in this game.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this divisional battle.

Hornets vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Hornets +4.5 (-110)
Heat -4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Hornets: +160
Heat: -192

Total

211 (Over -110/Under -110)

Hornets vs. Heat How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 23
Time: 6:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Kaseya Center
How to Watch (TV): FanDuel Sports Network (Local), NBA League Pass
Hornets record: 18-52
Heat record: 29-41

Hornets vs. Heat Injury Reports

Hornets Injury Report

Damion Baugh – out
Josh Green – questionable
Tre Mann – out
Brandon Miller – out
Josh Okogie – out
Tidjane Salaun – probable
Grant Williams – out

Heat Injury Report

Bam Adebayo – questionable
Tyler Herro – questionable
Josh Christopher – out
Keshad Johnson – out
Nikola Jovic – out
Dru Smith – out
Isaiah Stevens – out
Andrew Wiggins – available

Hornets vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bets

Charlotte Hornets Best NBA Prop Bet

LaMelo Ball OVER 22.5 Points (-105)

LaMelo Ball is averaging 25.4 points per game this season, and he’s scored 25 or more points in five of his last eight games. While Ball did fall short of this number against the Heat earlier this month, I still like him to have a big scoring game against a Miami team that is in the tank right now, losing 10 games in a row while ranking 19th in defensive rating.

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

Bam Adebayo OVER 4.5 Assists (-120)

Bam Adebayo has five or more dimes in six of his last 11 games, averaging 4.6 assists per game over that stretch. In addition to that, Bam picked up a smooth eight dimes (and 14 rebounds) against Charlotte earlier this month.

The Heat need playmakers on offense, and Bam’s scoring has been down in recent games. He could be worth a look in this market on Sunday.

Hornets vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

With LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges and Mark Williams all expected to play in this game, I have to back the Hornets to cover the spread as road underdogs in this matchup.

Miami has dropped 10 games in a row, and it’s just 10-11 against the spread as a home favorite in the 2024-25 season.

Charlotte is 16-14-1 against the spread as road underdog, and the Hornets actually have a better net rating (26th) over their last 10 games than the Heat (28th).

Miami is impossible to trust right now, and it’s likely going to end up as the No. 10 seed in the Eastern Conference. Even with the Hornets tanking, they beat the Heat back on March 10 on the road.

Don’t be shocked if they do that again in this one.

Pick: Hornets +4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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