Hugo Gaston vs. Jannik Sinner Prediction, Odds for Australian Open First Round

World No. 2 Jannik Sinner has won back-to-back Australian Open titles, and he’s looking for a three-peat starting with his first-round match against Hugo Gaston.

The No. 93 player in the world, Gaston has faced Sinner twice in his career (both in 2021) and has yet to win a set against the Italian.

Sinner has been dominant on hard surfaces, winning the 2024 U.S. Open and the Australian Open in 2024 and 2025. He’s also coming off a Wimbledon win in 2025, and he’s made the final in five consecutive Grand Slams.

So, it’s not a surprise that oddsmakers have set him as a massive favorite in this first-round match with Gaston.

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s history at the Australian Open and my prediction for the third meeting between Gaston and Sinner.

Hugo Gaston vs. Jannik Sinner Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Moneyline

Hugo Gaston: +2600
Jannik Sinner: -6100

Total

26.5 (Over -120/Under -120)

Hugo Gaston vs. Jannik Sinner How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Jan. 20
Time: 3:00 a.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Hugo Gaston vs. Jannik Sinner Australian Open History

Hugo Gaston

This is the fifth time that Gaston has appeared in a singles tournament at Melbourne Park, and he’s currently made it past the first round in just two of his four previous appearances.

Gaston has never made it out of the second round of the Australian Open, and he only has two third round or better finishes in a Grand Slam – both at the French Open.

So, this is a massive uphill battle for Gaston, who has lost his only two matches against Sinner in his career.

Jannik Sinner

Sinner has at least made the quarterfinals of the Australian Open in three of the last four years, and he’s won back-to-back titles in dominant fashion.

The Italian is on an epic run, making the final in every Grand Slam since the 2024 US Open. He also has not lost prior to the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam since the Australian Open back in 2023!

He’s faced Gaston twice – both in 2021 – at the ATP Masters 1000 Miami and in the Round of 16 at Marseille. Sinner won both of those matches in straight sets on hard surfaces.

Hugo Gaston vs. Jannik Sinner Prediction and Pick

Sinner is a massive favorite in this match, and for good reason.

The Italian has only dropped nine games in four sets against Gaston in his career, and he beat him in straight sets twice on hard surfaces back in 2021.

Now, Sinner returns to Melbourne Park, where he has had a ton of success over the last few years. Meanwhile, Gaston usually is a first-week exit at Grand Slam events, especially when it comes to the Australian Open.

When looking at the “set betting odds,” Sinner is -575 to win in straight sets. That would set him up in a great spot to win this match in less than 26.5 games, and he’s only had one set (out of four) with Gaston where he dropped more than two games.

I’ll trust the No. 2 player in the world to advance in straight sets in the first round, as he’s the best hard court player in the world.

Pick: UNDER 26.5 Games (-120 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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