Illinois State vs. Dayton Prediction Odds, Key Player to Watch for NIT Quarterfinal

The Dayton Flyers missed the NCAA Tournament despite a solid showing in the A-10, losing to the VCU Rams in the A-10 title game.

Now, the Flyers are looking to continue an impressive run in the NIT, and they’re favored in the quarterfinals against the Illinois State Redbirds.

Illinois State was the No. 3 team in the Missouri Valley Conference in the regular season, and it’s coming off a three-point win against the ACC’s Wake Forest in the second round of the NIT.

The Redbirds are just inside the top-100 in KenPom’s latest rankings, posting the No. 66 adjusted defensive efficiency in the country.

Meanwhile, Dayton is the No. 64 team in KenPom and is rising after a 14-point win over Bradley and a 19-point win over UNC Wilmington to begin the NIT.

Can the Flyers cover the spread as 7.5-point favorites in the quarterfinals?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this NIT showdown.

Illinois State vs. Dayton Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Illinois State +7.5 (-112)
Dayton -7.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Illinois State: +270
Dayton: -340

Total

140.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Illinois State vs. Dayton How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, March 25
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: UD Arena
How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
Illinois State record: 22-12
Dayton record: 25-11

Illinois State vs. Dayton Key Player to Watch

Javon Bennett, Guard, Dayton

Senior guard Javon Bennett is the leading scorer for the Flyers, averaging 16.3 points per game while shooting 39.6 percent from the field and 34.9 percent from beyond the arc. While he hasn’t been incredibly efficient, Bennett did drop 25 points in the NIT opener against Bradley.

He’s scored in double figures in five of his last six games, though UNC Wilmington kept him in check. Bennett had just nine points on 3-of-11 shooting in that win.

The Flyers have three players averaging double-digit points per game, but Bennett is the clear leader of this offense, as he also leads the team in assists per game (3.0) this season.

Illinois State vs. Dayton Prediction and Pick

The Redbirds hang their hat on the defensive end of the floor, ranking 66th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 86th in opponent effective field goal percentage.

However, Illinois State’s offense is just 147th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, and the Redbirds are 159th in turnover rate.

That could be a major issue against a Flyers team that is 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency, mainly because of their ability to force turnovers. Dayton ranks 144th in opponent eFG%, but it has the 11th-best opponent turnover rate in the country.

On offense, the Flyers make up for some pedestrian shooting numbers by getting to the line at a higher rate than any team in the country.

Dayton has rolled through the NIT to this point, and since it lost five of six games earlier in the season in A-10 play, it has gone 10-2 in its last 12 games.

I’m buying the Flyers to win big on Wednesday night.

Pick: Dayton -7.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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