Illinois State vs. Montana State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for FCS Championship

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the FCS Championship between Illinois State and Montana State.

The Montana State Bobcats and quarterback Justin Lamson are favored to win the FCS Championship. / Michael Thomas Shroyer-Imagn Images

The stage is set for the FCS Championship in Nashville, Tenn., as the Illinois State Redbirds aim to complete a Cinderella run against the No. 2 Montana State Bobcats.

Montana State knocked off No. 3 Montana by 25 in the semifinals, and oddsmakers have set quarterback Justin Lamson and company as double-digit favorites in Monday’s championship game.

Illinois State is unranked, but it has pulled off some huge wins to make the championship, knocking off No. 1 North Dakota State, No. 8 UC Davis and No. 12 Villanova. Illinois State dominated Nova in the semifinals (30-14), and it’s looking to pull off one more upset on Monday.

Montana State has not lost since Week 2, and it only has one loss to a non-Power Four opponent (South Dakota State) this season. The Bobcats’ other loss came to Oregon in Week 1. 

Here’s a look at the odds, a key player to watch and my prediction for the FCS Championship on Monday night. 

Illinois State vs. Montana State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Illinois State +10.5 (-110)
• Montana State -10.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Illinois State: +330
• Montana State: -425

Total

• 56.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Illinois State vs. Montana State How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Jan. 5
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: FirstBank Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Illinois State: 12-4
• Montana State: 13-2

Illinois State vs. Montana State Key Player to Watch

Adam Jones, Running Back, Montana State

This season, Jones has found the end zone 15 times on the ground for the Bobcats, and he dominated in the FCS Tournament, rushing for over 100 yards in every single game. The sophomore had 16 carries for 131 yards and two scores against Montana in the semifinals, and he is now averaging 6.2 yards per carry.

Jones forms a great duo with Julius Davis, who is averaging 6.7 yards per carry and has cleared 1,000 yards this season as well.

While Illinois State has been on a Cinderella run to the final, it’s still allowing over 130 rushing yards per game this season. 

I expect the Bobcats to lean heavily on their running game as they look to win their 14th game in a row. 

Illinois State vs. Montana State Prediction and Pick

It may be a square play to take the Bobcats in this game, but I think they’re going to run away with this title on Monday night.

Prior to the semifinals against Montana, the Bobcats hadn’t played many close games outside of a three-point win over Montana earlier in the season. Then, the Bobcats proceeded to blow out the Grizzlies, showing that they may be the best FCS team in the country.

Overall, Montana State has 11 wins by 11 or more points, with only Montana and Yale (in the FCS tournament) keeping games within double digits against them in games that the Bobcats went on to win. 

That makes this a tough task for Illinois State, even though it is peaking at the right time. The Redbirds have wins by 16, 11, one and 18 in the FCS tournament, but this is a major step up in class. 

With a full two weeks to prepare, I think the Bobcats will be able to cover on Monday night. 

Pick: Montana State -10.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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