Illinois vs. Houston Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Arguably, the most fascinating Sweet 16 matchup is a Big Ten vs. Big 12 showdown between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Houston Cougars.

Houston is looking to get back to the National Championship after falling just a few points short of winning their first championship in school history last year. They seem to be in peak form after disposing of the likes of Idaho and Texas A&M, but they have their work cut out for them against an Illinois team that plays some of the best fundamental basketball in the country.

Illinois vs. Houston Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Spread

Illinois +3 (-110)
Houston -3 (-165)

Moneyline

Illinois +140
Houston -165

Total

OVER 140.5 (-110)
UNDER 140.5 (-110)

Illinois vs. Houston How to Watch

Date: Thursday, March 26
Game Time: 10:05 pm ET
Venue: Toyota Center
How to Watch (TV): TBS/truTV
Illinois Record: 26-8
Houston Record: 30-6

Illinois vs. Houston Betting Trends

The UNDER is 8-4 in Illinois' last 12 games vs. Big 12 opponents
The UNDER is 5-2 in Illinois' last seven games as an underdog
Houston is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
The UNDER is 11-5 in Houston's last 16 games

Illinois vs. Houston Best Prop Bet

Kingston Flemings UNDER 16.5 Points (-106) via FanDuel

I think Houston is going to be in a rare spot where the Cougars are going to be baffled by the opposing defense, rather than the usual situation where the Cougars are the ones baffling the defense. Illinois plays strong fundamental basketball while having the size to shut down Houston. That's going to lead to Kingston Flemings having a below-average performance. I'll take the UNDER on his points total.

Illinois vs. Houston Prediction and Pick

The key to beating Illinois is stopping the 3-ball. The Fighting Illini rank 15th in the country in 3-point shot rate, with 50.4% of its shots coming from beyond the arc. Luckily for them, the perimeter of the Houston defense is its weak point, if there is one. The Cougars rank 44th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 31.4% from beyond the arc.

The most fascinating thing about this matchup is that both teams play an extremely fundamental and disciplined style of basketball, evidenced by the fact that they rank first and second in effective possession ratio. That's going to work against Houston, as the Cougars rely on winning the rebounding and turnover battle against their opponents to overcome the fact that they rank 142nd in effective field goal percentage.

Illinois can match them in those areas, while also boasting much better shooting numbers, ranking 34th in eFG%.

This is my favorite upset pick of the week.

Pick: Illinois +140 via Caesars

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