Italy vs. Mexico Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for World Baseball Classic

Italy shocked the world on Tuesday night with an 8-6 win against the United States to bring an undefeated record into its final game against Mexico. The United States could now be eliminated if Mexico wins a low-scoring game tonight.

Italy beat Brazil 8-0 and Great Britain 7-4 before the win over the United States, while Mexico beat Great Britain 8-2 and Brazil 16-0 before losing 5-3 to the US.

Here are the odds, probable pitchers, and predictions for Italy vs. Mexico on Wednesday night.

Italy vs. Mexico Odds & Run Line

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Italy +240
Mexico -310

Run Line

Italy +1.5 (+110)
Mexico -1.5 (-140)

Total

7.5 (Over -115/Under -110)

Italy vs. Mexico Probable Pitchers

Italy: Aaron Nola
Mexico: TBA

Italy vs. Mexico How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, March 11
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Daikin Park – Houston, TX
How to Watch (TV): FS1

Italy vs. Mexico Prediction and Pick

While Mexico has yet to name a starting pitcher as of Wednesday morning, it’ll be MLB veteran Aaron Nola on the hill for Italy. The Phillies right-hander is coming off the worst season of his career, posting a 6.01 ERA to bring his career ERA up to 3.83, but he did have a solid showing in one spring training outing prior to the World Baseball Classic.

Italy’s offense has been powered by the long ball so far. Dante Nori has two home runs, with six other players going deep in the tournament. Then there is Vinnie Pasquantino, a sleeping giant who is 0 for 12 thus far after a career-high 32 homers last season.

Mexico has a few big bats as well, with Jarren Duran being the only player with three home runs in the tournament so far.

These teams have both averaged over seven runs scored per game through three contests. While those numbers are buoyed by Brazil and Great Britain, they should be able to get to more than seven runs tonight in a must-win game.

I do like Italy a bit to pull off the upset at +240 or keep it close at +1.5 (+110), but the OVER is my best bet.

Pick: OVER 7.5 (-115)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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