Italy vs. United States Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for World Baseball Classic

Italy and the United States are both undefeated through a few games at the 2026 World Baseball Classic.

The Pool B combatants face off in a key matchup, with the USA coming off a 5-3 win over Mexico, which followed a 9-1 victory over Great Britain and a 15-5 win against Brazil.

Meanwhile, Italy beat Brazil 8-0 and Great Britain 7-4, and will play Mexico on Wednesday after facing the United States tonight.

Can the United States go undefeated through pool play to take the top spot in Pool B?

Here are the odds, probable pitchers, and predictions for Italy vs. United States on Tuesday night.

Italy vs. United States Odds & Run Line

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Italy +750
United States -1200

Run Line

Italy +5.5 (-115)
United States -5.5 (-105)

Total

11.5 (Over -120/Under -105)

Italy vs. United States Probable Pitchers

Italy: Michael Lorenzen
United States: Nolan McLean

Italy vs. United States How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, March 10
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Daikin Park – Houston, TX
How to Watch (TV): FS1

Italy vs. United States Prediction and Pick

It’s a battle between two major-league arms tonight in Houston. Michael Lorenzen gets the ball for Italy against youngster Nolan McLean for the United States.

Lorenzen went 7-11 with a 4.64 ERA in 27 games (26 starts) for the Rockies last season, but does have a respectable 4.08 ERA in his career. Meanwhile, McLean rose through the ranks last year, allowing just 11 ER on 34 hits while striking out 57 in 48 innings across eight starts for the Mets.

McLean started the year at Double-A, where he posted a 1.37 ERA in five starts and saw that balloon all the way up to 2.78 in 16 games (13 starts) at Triple-A before making the jump to the majors. He made one spring training start for the Mets this season, allowing one hit and one walk with six strikeouts in four innings against the Astros.

Team USA obviously has the advantage on Tuesday night, and it’s a must-win game as a loss could create some tiebreaker scenarios that shouldn’t be necessary. However, can the United States win by more than five? That’s where some doubt creeps in.

Italy has hit five home runs through two games, with four different players going deep. I’ll back the Italians to keep this a close enough game, as the Americans should be happy enough with just a win to sweep through Pool B.

Pick: Italy +5.5 (-115)

Register with DraftKings today and get $200 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first bet. Claim this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code offer by making a $5 deposit and making your first $5 wager.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.