IU Indy vs. Cleveland State Prediction, Odds for Horizon League Championship Play-In

The Horizon League Championship begins on Monday night with a play-in matchup for the No. 10 seed between the No. 11 IU Indianapolis Jaguars and the No. 10 Cleveland State Vikings.

Both of these teams are well below .500 this season, as the Jaguars are just 7-24 while the Vikings are 10-21.

Cleveland State is at home in this matchup, but it has dropped seven games in a row to fall to 6-14 in conference play. The bright side for the Vikings? IU Indy is just 3-17 in conference play and 2-14 on the road this season.

These teams met twice in the regular season with Cleveland State winning by 13 at home while IU Indy won the last meeting by eight points on its home floor. Both of these teams are going to struggle to make any noise in the Horizon League tourney, as the winner will play No. 1 Wright State in the first round.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this play-in battle as the conference tournament part of March Madness gets underway.

IU Indy vs. Cleveland State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

IU Indy +1.5 (-110)
Cleveland State -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline

IU Indy: +105
Cleveland State: -125

Total

169.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

IU Indy vs. Cleveland State How to Watch

Date: Monday, March 2
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Wolstein Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN+
IU Indy record: 7-24
Cleveland State record: 10-21

IU Indy vs. Cleveland State Key Player to Watch

Dayan Nessah, Forward, Cleveland State

Will the Vikings best player be able to suit up in this matchup? A shoulder injury kept Nessah out for the final four games of the regular season, and his availability is in question on Monday night.

A sophomore forward, Nessah has been dominant in his two meetings against the Jaguars this season, averaging 23.5 points per game while shooting 64.0 percent from the field.

Nessah has been an efficient scorer for the Vikings all season long, knocking down 55.3 percent of his shots from the field and 33.3 percent of his 3-point attempts. The Vikings lost against the Jaguars even though he had 24 points against them in their last meeting, so if Nessah ends up sitting, Cleveland State may be in trouble at home.

IU Indy vs. Cleveland State Prediction and Pick

Nessah’s status throws a lot of uncertainty into this game, as the Vikings are likely the better team if he’s able to go. However, his status is unclear, and Cleveland State went 0-4 without him to end the regular season, losing three of those games by double digits.

These teams are both outside the top-300 in KenPom’s latest rankings, and neither defends at a high level. IU Indy ranks 362nd in opponent effective field goal percentage while the Vikings clock in at No. 358.

While that seems like the perfect recipe for an OVER, I don’t trust the Cleveland State offense if Nessah doesn’t play. In the last four games without him, Cleveland State has scored 82, 86, 70 and 64 points, which may not be enough to push this game to 170 or more total points.

While IU Indy is fourth in the country in adjusted tempo (per KenPom), the Jaguars are just 242nd in adjusted offensive efficiency. In the last meeting between these teams, they combined for just 156 points even though Nessah dropped 24 for the Vikings.

This spread being just 1.5 points even though Cleveland State is at home is a sign that oddsmakers may be expecting Nessah to sit out again. I think that sets up perfectly for an UNDER play on Monday night.

Pick: UNDER 169.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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